The C5 Mandate: Why African Union’s Diplomacy Must Pivot to Action in South Sudan

By Amaju Ubur Yalamoi Ayani

On January 15, 2026, the African Union’s High-Level Ad Hoc Committee (C5)—composed of Algeria, Chad, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and South Africa—met with President Salva Kiir Mayardit in the South Sudanese capital, Juba. With the clock ticking toward the nation’s inaugural general elections in December 2026, in my opinion, the era of toothless communiqués must come to its expiration date. To prevent South Sudan’s transition from devolving into a catalyst for renewed civil fragmentation, the C5 must abandon its role as a passive observer and emerge as a fierce enforcer of democratic benchmarks.

For years, South Sudan’s progress has been stifled by a chronic deficit of political will, often shielded by the quiet diplomacy of its regional peers. While Juba frequently offers public pledges of commitment, the technical reality is far more sombre. Critical pillars of the Revitalized Peace Agreement (R-ARCSS) remain hollow; specifically, the National Constitutional Review Commission (NCRC) has yet to solidify the legal framework necessary for a legitimate vote. Simultaneously, the members of SPLM-IO loyal to the detained First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar Teny and other opposition groups remain sidelined, raising alarms over the lack of inclusion in election processes. For this reason, the C5 can no longer afford to be encouraged by empty promises; they must signal that a sham election will result in immediate regional diplomatic isolation.

While the C5 holds the political mandate, the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) provides the essential security and technical infrastructure. Under its current mandate, extended through April 30, 2026, UNMISS is empowered to protect civilians and facilitate the peace process. However, the UN Security Council has explicitly tethered its electoral assistance to demonstrable progress in creating a fair political environment. The C5 must align its high-level mediation with these UN redlines, ensuring that the National Elections Commission operates independently and that the South Sudan National Police Service is professionalized enough to secure the proposed polling stations.

Beneath the political deadlock also lies a deepening economic emergency. Despite a projected 48.8 percent gross domestic product (GDP) rebound for 2026 as oil flows resume through the Jabaleyn-Port Sudan pipeline, the peace dividend remains invisible to the public. With inflation hovering near 65 percent, survival is a daily battle for the majority. The C5 must call upon an exhaustive audit of the petroleum sector, ending the practice of treating oil wealth as a private ledger for the elite, while civil servants and members of our security structures face months of salary arrears. If the AU is to endorse the 2026 electoral budget, it must be through a “Resource for Reform” pact, mandating full transparency from the Ministry of Finance and Planning.

Other critical lines are the situations of refugees and internally displaced persons. A nation cannot claim a democratic mandate while a third of its population remains in exile or in camps. As of early 2026, South Sudan hosts over 600,000 refugees fleeing the war in Sudan, while 2.2 million South Sudanese remain refugees in neighbouring countries. Working with the UNHCR, the AU must secure voting mechanisms for these citizens. Furthermore, the two million internally displaced persons (IDPs) within the country must be granted safe-haven polling zones demilitarized by UNMISS peacekeepers to prevent the voter intimidation tactics that have historically marred local governance.

In summary, the intersection of political stagnation, a humanitarian crisis affecting 7.5 million people, and a fragile economy demands a radical shift in strategy. The C5 must present Juba with an uncompromising ultimatum:

1. Civic inclusion: Protecting opposition leaders and activists from the overreach of the National Security Service (NSS).
2. Fiscal accountability: Redirecting oil revenues from shadow accounts toward the public institutions tasked with national recovery.
3. Universal franchise: Guaranteeing that no election result will be recognized without the verified participation of refugees and IDPs.

The people of South Sudan have waited fifteen years to define their own destiny. The December 2026 deadline is not just a date on a calendar—it is the final opportunity for the world’s youngest nation to validate its statehood. It is time for the C5 to stop acting as guests of the political class and start acting as the protectors of the South Sudanese people.

About the writer

Amaju Ubur Yalamoi Ayani, aka Amaju Joseph Ubur Ayani, is a teacher and political commentator. He can be reached via This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..