The Legitimacy of the South Sudanese Gov’t Hangs in the Balance

The arrest and continued detention of Dr Riek Marchar the South Sudanese first vice president under house arrest and the resurgence of conflict ignites concerns about the delayed implementation of the 2018 peace accord. It also questions the legitimacy of the South Sudanese government on two grounds; because the arrest itself is a violation of the Addis Ababa peace agreement that ended the 5 years civil war.

But also, the mandate of the current transitional government lapsed with the expiry of the 3 years transitional period that was agreed upon by both parties during the peace agreement that ended the civil war. The routine postponement of the country’s general elections and the delayed democracy despises the purposes of the 2018 peace agreement and the mandate/legitimacy of the transitional government

It becomes very difficult to answer questions surrounding the legitimacy of the existing government of South Sudan. The peace agreement has been breached, where is the government now deriving powers to call itself government? The government no-longer exists by the 2018 peace agreement that formed it upon it’s violation, could the existing one be as a result of democracy, military coup, any other existing agreement, or it’s just an imposter?

On a brief background, since independence in July 2011, the world’s youngest country has never held any democratic election, and only enjoyed 2 years of relative peace before it was plunged into a conflict after threats of a pending military coup led by the then vice president Dr Riek Marchar against the president Salva Kiir.

However, the conflict turned out to be mapped along ethnic lines which led to the splitting of the army into several factions of paramilitaries and with clashes between the Nuel and the Dinka ethnicities, with the Nuel aligning with the vice president and the Dinka aligning with the president.

This large-scale ethnic violence that lasted for 5 year merits explanations for the enormous human sufferings it caused with millions of refugees languishing in refugee camps in the neighboring countries of Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, millions in IDP camps, thousands of deaths, casualties and destruction.

The conflict was ended by the 2018 peace agreement known as the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (RARCSS) that was signed on 12th December 2018 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

The key objectives of the peace settlement was to agree on power sharing which resulted in the formation of a transitional government that was to oversee the return to democracy by organizing for the country’s general elections, and security sector reforms. Is there any sufficient reason for the delayed transition and general elections in the country?

The arrest and continued detention of the vice president under house arrest becomes an important piece of evidence in the larger puzzle surrounding the legitimacy of the government as this questions the existence of the 2018 agreement that gave birth to the current government. Could it be the last bullet towards the question of legitimacy of government? No doubt.

The arrest has been followed by a state led aggression against the sympathizers opposing the arrest of the Vice president and subsequent deployment of Ugandan forces to help in the offensive. The deployment of the Ugandan forces has been questioned internally and internationally citing concerns of the ethnic dimensions in the conflict, proportionality, breach of the 2018 peace agreement, sovereignty and breach of international customary law.

The Salva Kiir Presidency is using Ethnicity cards to avoid or delay democracy in South Sudan. South Sudan is home to 64 distinct tribes who have been deprived of democracy by the Kiir-Marchar mistrust.

Regional and the international community should be concerned about the fate and legitimacy of the government in South Sudan, alongside other key concerns about the delayed democracy, transitional justice especially after the offensives by Ugandan Forces (UPDF) among others

Democracy will stabilize South Sudan at all odds, and there is no sufficient reason for the continued delay of the democratic process.

Richard Byamukama is a Lawyer, and a security studies expert.
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