Riek! It is mischief. Says Captain Mabior Garang De Mabior

Mabior Garang (2nd from left)

“It is true; the SPLM/SPLA (IO) could not wage the struggle alone, after the SSOA and FDs surrendered to the regime over one year ago.” Declared Captain Mabior with his hands up. Basically, he has thrown in the towel. “They have been voting with the regime and have even given the regime the power to choose their leaders.” Mabior continues pointing out that this “ Coupled with the international diplomatic pressure mounted on the SPLM/SPLA (IO), the Movement was left with no options but to succumb to the illusion of peace. Any responsible citizen who has read the Agreement, knows that not a single provision of the Agreement has been implemented. In fact, the Agreement is being dismantled before our eyes – especially Security Arrangements – and we are helpless to stop it – in fear of losing our brand new jobs.” Mabior then goes on to pose a pertinent question: “If we have agreed to form the government outside the provisions of the Agreement and in the absence of credible Security Arrangements in the country; how can we then claim we have not surrendered(?).”

There is no doubt that Mabior has insight into the workings of the SPLM-IO and he wants to clear his conscience from the wool that has been pulled over the eyes of the people of South Sudan by the international community, IGAD and the kleptocratic regime in Juba that peace has returned to the country. R-ARCSS is a shame agreement and Mabior through his article, ‘The success or failure of any movement is determined by how it has achieved its objectives,’ has exposed the big lie that was imposed on the people of South Sudan in Khartoum in September 2018. (https://ssnewsnow.com/the-success-or-failure-of-any-movement-is-determined-by-how-it-has-achieved-its-objectives/).

However, Mabior’s piece raises issues with the leadership of SPLM-IO. For over a decade some of us tried to highlight Dr Riek Machar’s poor leadership qualities and this unfortunately was not heeded by his supporters. They just kept supporting him despite the fact that many of his fighters and supporters lost their lives due to irresponsible military and political decisions taken by their leader. Over the years, Riek has ridden on the prophesy of the Nuer prophet Nugndeng. He presented himself as the prophesied Messiah of South Sudan to the extent that he has taken custody of Ngundeng’s special rod when it was returned to South Sudan. The propaganda that built him as a leader is waning.

It was only a matter of time for the mask to fall off and now it has leading to Mabior finding out for himself the bitter truth. SPLM-IO is now facing extinction. Unconventional change of power or slippage of power from a leader whether charismatic or not come in different forms and shapes: coups, uprisings, revolutions and so on. Such a change is presently going on in the SPLM-IO. Riek’s popularity began to disintegrate soon after he signed the R-ARCSS and this took a serious turn in the last quarter of 2019. Critics correctly pointed out that he and the other signatories to the agreement sold out.

Then in August 2019 Machar failed to mediate peace in Nuer land leading to the defection of the fierce General James Ochan Puot who said “We are not happy because Machar’s leadership is not good. Innocent civilians including women died in the recent fighting in Adar,” “Our communities are unhappy about what happened in the area of Adar” Please see, ‘SPLA-IO’s top general defects to government’ (https://radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/spla-io-s-top-general-defects-to-government). Before this rift could heal, General James Koang Chuol Ranley, a highly regarded soldier who played a big role in the July 2016 war in Juba announced defection to the government with some senior officers. General Ranley raised many questions whether the SPLM/A-IO "still champions political, military, and economic reforms in the country.” Please see ‘The Defection of General James Koang Chuol Ranley: What went wrong?’ (https://southsudannewsagency.org/index.php/2020/03/21/the-defection-of-general-james-koang-chuol-ranley-what-went-wrong/)

Within a week of Ranley’s separation, a further defection took place. This time, it was by General James Nando Mark. He wrote to Machar, "I would like to submit this resignation letter to your esteem office, with effect from March 26th 2020, my forces and I have completely and without hesitation or reservation have withdrawn our loyalty from your leadership of IO and declare it under his Excellency, Kiir Maryardit, the President of the Republic of South Sudan." James’ reasons for defection is that “he survived an assassination attempt by the Alfred Futiyo another IO general after his return to Ezo area of Western Equatoria state on 15 March”. Please see, ‘Another SPLA-IO general defects to South Sudan’s President Kiir” (https://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article69151)

These defections of senior military personal from SPLM-IO and the reasons given shine light on the chaos and mismanagement going on in SPLM-IO. Worse still these generals flocked to the very regime they had been fighting for the last 6 years. The implication is that President Salva Kiir is much preferred by the defectors than Machar. What does that mean for the future of Machar and the SPLM-IO? The writing is on the wall: SPLM-IO is gradually atrophying with Machar, the man of power losing power fast. To understand this situation, let us contextualise it within the literature of revolutions and political changes. Powerful leaders and regimes usually begin to lose power when cracks happen within their movements and the people they lead develop discontent. Take for example, the fall of General Omer Hassan Al Bashir of Sudan was possible because the army became divided paralysing the power base on which the regime depended. Similarly, the fall of Hosni Mubarak of Egypt was possible because the army got divided. Again, the collapse of the Soviet Union was possible because the army got divided. The common denominator in these changes is the refusal of the army to support the regimes in favour of the people. However, these changes are particularly related to changes of governments and not rebel movements. With rebel movements a similar phenomenon takes place with the end result being either change of leadership or demise of the movement. Riek personally has gone through this experience numerous times with SPLM-Nasir, SPLM-United, Sudan People’s Defence Forces/Democratic Front (SPDF), and SSIM.

Now history is repeating itself and similar scenario is going on in SPLM-IO with the top brass deserting in drones. Practically, Riek is now so weak like he has never been before with potentially no hope of recovering politically and this is because he took his supporters for granted. The greatest weakness of Riek is his inability to listen and appreciate sound advice and this stems from his arrogance and impulsive character.

Any supposed leader who does not listen to advice and does not have skills of uniting people is bound to fail. On the other hand, Riek’s nemesis President Kiir appears kitted with the very skills that his opponent lacks. He exploits and thrives on the knowledge he obtained from his security profession to outwit Riek. He listens carefully, especially to the Jieng Council of Elders (JCE), his resource base which enables him to use/abuse the resources of the state effectively to promote their agenda of ethnicization of South Sudan. It is not a surprise that the desertions in SPLM-IO have set in motion a process that strengthens the ethnic regime in Juba and weakens the opposition with Riek’s leadership and political value diminishing by the day. It is just a matter of time for Riek to find himself irrelevant without any followers but his family members.

If Riek was to be a good listener and a unifier, he would have succeeded to turf President Kiir from power long time ago by taking the numerous advice offered to him. For example, soon after the sad and painful events of December 2013, a well meaning member of the public offered Riek valuable advice for free and he just ignored it. Please see, ‘Riek Machar, adopt Nuer egalitarianism as your manifesto and watch your popularity skyrocket!’ (https://southsudannewsagency.org/index.php/2014/05/15/riek-machar-adopt-nuer-egalitarianism-as-your-manifesto/). In ‘Like a leopard can not change its spots, Machar can not change’ I highlighted Riek’s weakness and duplicity and it seems he failed to learn something from the critique ( https://southsudannewsagency.org/index.php/2014/08/08/like-a-leopard-can-not-change-its-spots/). Further in ‘President Kiir’s machiiavellian tricks: Machar be forwarned’ I reitereated the advice provided by Margaret Akulia in her article and emphasised the importance of unity as a powerful tool to dethrone the regime in Juba, but all these fell on deaf ears. The brutal truth is that Riek can neither unite the Nuer nor bring South Sudanese together. That is the essence of the man. He can not distance himself from his crocked ways and his strong attachment to familial politics.

Although, Riek is losing power and things appear to be improving for President Kiir, the regime in Juba should not think that they are winning. The political waning of Riek is visible while that of President Kiir is invisible taking place in the confines of the villages of the Jieng. Also JCE is no longer united as before. Political differences are ripping it apart but they are keeping this information tight under wraps to hide their weakness. In the tribal army the competition for positions is turning vicious with officers scheming against each other.

In their villages, the Jieng are killing themselves in considerable numbers and this is having a direct impact on the tribal army. Credible reports suggest there is discontent due to lack of non payment of salaries and provision of medical services resulting into a good number of soldiers daily deserting the service and returning to their villages. Lots of these deserters suffer from mental health problems and their return home poses real problems to their communities. Hence, the rampant reports of violence and suicides signalling the disintegration of Jieng community. So in a nutshell, Riek as well as Kiir are losing power and their communities are falling apart due to the dystopia they created.

In conclusion, the repudiation of Riek by SPLA-IO rank and file; schisms in the Nuer lands; condemnation of his familial politics and the poor image he radiates indicate that his political career is coming to an end. Similarly, President Kiir’s promotion of ethnic policies coupled with Jieng land grab and crimes point to demise of his rule. So, both Riek and President are on the same train heading to the dust bin of history and this indisputably is a good thing for South Sudan.

[Truth hurts but it is also liberating]

Elhag Paul

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