The SPLM ruling party is facing a dilemma and Thucydides trap at a pivotal moment

SPLM Logo (Credit: Facebook/File)

By Jwothab Othow

August 24, 2026

(Pachodo.org) - The SPLM, South Sudan’s ruling party, faces a Thucydides trap at a critical juncture. With the 2018 revitalized peace agreement set to culminate in elections in December 2026, the nation is at a crossroads. Juba’s political establishment has already resorted to extensions and has neglected the agreement’s most crucial provisions. The SPLM is now in a bind, with little time left. Key challenges include legal ambiguity regarding amendments to the peace deal, the absence of a permanent constitution, the incomplete formation of a unified national army, and an unfinished population census. The SPLM regime has two main paths. First, they can re-engage in dialogue and seek consensus with stakeholders and signatories of the 2018 agreement. This would enable them to address implementation deficits, fulfill outstanding commitments, and possibly postpone elections to December 2027. Second, the SPLM and other signatories can initiate inclusive talks with South Sudanese opposition groups not party to the current agreement. This would involve revising the agreement’s terms to tackle the conflict’s root causes and integrate the concerns of these holdout factions, thereby fostering a more comprehensive framework for enduring peace and stability in South Sudan.

Its present state, a situation gravely exacerbated by political instability, a severe economic crisis, and an urgent humanitarian emergency, significantly affected the nation’s sovereignty. These difficulties are further intensified by the government’s push for sham elections, its resistance to foreign interference, economic collapse, dwindling oil revenues, widespread public suffering, the ongoing humanitarian crisis, and the displacement of South Sudanese from their ancestral lands. Indeed, the President’s administration is grappling with mounting pressure from both the international community and regional players. Criticism compounds regarding elections that fail to meet fair and free standards, a lack of progress on the 2018 peace agreement, and persistent instability. The Kiir government has cautioned against foreign intervention in South Sudan, firmly pushing back against outside pressure. President Kiir’s pursuit of power via a questionable election unfairly legitimizes his rule and will only intensify the suffering of South Sudanese citizens. The most prudent step for President Kiir would be to resign, cede power, and pave the way for a peaceful transition through general elections. This would empower the people of South Sudan to choose a new leader equipped to deliver vital services and end pervasive violence, ultimately fostering enduring national peace.

It is indeed the case that regional and international bodies are reluctant to back South Sudan’s opposition. There are underlying reasons why these entities are not supporting South Sudanese opposition groups seeking regime change in Juba; they tend to favor stability over such a transition. The international community and regional powers are concerned that forcibly ousting the current leadership in Juba could lead to a complete state collapse, exacerbate the severe humanitarian crisis, potentially including genocide, and jeopardize broader regional stability. Moreover, this could create a dangerous power vacuum among the opposition factions themselves. Additionally, regional and international players perceive South Sudan’s opposition groups as fragmented and lacking a unified, clear strategy for governing the nation. They often view opposition figures as former government officials who revolted after losing political or military influence, seeing them as participants in the country’s elite power struggles rather than genuine democratic reformers.

Furthermore, regional and international bodies are hesitant due to widespread accusations of human rights violations and ethnically driven violence against both South Sudan’s governonment and South Sudanese opposition groups and militias. This makes their support for these factions difficult and politically unfeasible. It is also crucial for opposition parties to unite, prioritizing national interests over internal disputes, which would have weakened the opposition to Kiir’s oppressive government. The SPLM has become South Sudan’s primary adversary, transforming from freedom fighters to a predatory elite that has plundered the nation’s resources through violent kleptocracy since 2005. It is ironic that President Kiir’s authoritarian regime speaks of elections in December 2026, in a nation ravaged by violence and largely displaced. Kiir’s tribalistic fascism must be made to understand that it cannot suppress the will of the South Sudanese people. As the late Solomon Kalushi Mahlangi famously said, “All we want is freedom, and that’s all we desire. Freedom for children to learn, for men to work, for mothers to love, and for nations to flourish–that’s our sole wish. We seek equality for all. You see, I am merely one among many, a foot soldier. Countless others will follow. Therefore, the revolution will continue, unstoppable by any court, police force, or army. No punishment you decree, no law you enact, can extinguish the people’s will. For we will fight, and we will continue to fight until our people are liberated. Perhaps we will even free you from yourselves. So, you may hate us, degrade us, torture us, and kill us, but we will persevere, and we will be free. One day, freedom will be ours.”

In an authoritarian state like South Sudan, fair and free elections are impossible. President Kiir, in his unbridled pursuit of power, is clearly attempting to grant himself undeserved legitimacy through a flawed election, which will only prolong the suffering of the South Sudanese people. Furthermore, Kiir’s regime faces a dilemma akin to the Thucydides Trap, a dangerous pattern for the established SPLM ruling party. They fear rising citizen demands for change across South Sudan, which threaten their power. President Kiir should step down, relinquish power, and prepare the country for a peaceful transition through general elections. This would allow the people of South Sudan to elect a new leader capable of providing basic services and ending systemic violence for lasting peace. This is the only way forward.

May God bless South Sudan and may God bless and protect its people!

The author, Jwothab Othow, is a conservative social thinker, activist and critics against the system of fascist tribal politics in South Sudan and can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..