At the brink: Can South Sudan avert another civil war?

South Sudan could be sliding toward a civil war . The country's senior military commander, Johnson Olony, reportedly urged troops recently to act decisively and "spare no lives," including civilians, as part of preparations for a government offensive against opposition forces in Jonglei state.  The United Nations peacekeeping mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and other human rights organizations have condemned Olony's remarks as encouragement for potential war cimes. 

The country's political situation has worsened following the detention and trial of former Vice President Riek Machar.

For Tim Glawion of the Arnold Bergstraesser Institute in Freiburg, the situation is "really frightening. More than three quarters of the population are in extreme distress, threatened by hunger and exposed to the fighting. Flooding is added to this. And now the looming prospect of a renewed civil war," he told DW.

The tensions are focused on Jonglei state, where renewed clashes between opposition militias and government troops have killed and injured scores. According to the UN, 180,000 people have been displaced.

"The mobilization on both sides raises fears that the situation could spiral out of control, ethnic conflicts could be triggered, and civilians could become targets," Daniel Akech, an expert at the International Crisis Group, said. 

"We have seen violence in areas that were taken by the opposition in December and also in January. That is a sign that the country is sliding into a full-scale war," he told DW.

Former VP Riek Machar in court

In Juba, Machar is being held responsible for the Nuer "White Army" attack on a military base in Nasir in March 2025, which killed around 250 soldiers and a general. The government accused him and some of his allies of murder and crimes against humanity in September 2025.

Machar, leader of the South Sudan People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO), is said to have mobilized the Nuer fighters. President Salva Kiir removed him from his post and initiated criminal proceedings. "He is under house arrest and cannot communicate with his troops. The opposition lacks leadership at the top", Akech said.

But the government is weak, too. Since late 2024, President Kiir has been sidelining senior figures, and in late 2025, he sacked his long-serving intelligence chief. The 2020 unity government is paralyzed by old rivalries and new power struggles. Although Kiir has set up a dialogue committee for the December 2026 elections, Machar's opposition party is excluded.

More weapons instead of peace

The political tensions have dragged on for decades, Glawion said. Since gaining independence in 2011, South Sudan has not moved toward peace but toward ever deeper militarization.

"Political offices are filled exclusively by former militia leaders. Even today, civilian voices hardly appear in politics at all, 15 years after independence and even 20 years after the partial autonomy that was proclaimed in 2005," Glawion stressed.

For South Sudan's people, instead of demobilization, there are ever more weapons and armed fighters in the country, Glawion noted. Free elections remain a distant prospect, despite repeated agreements between Kiir and Machar in 2013, 2016, and 2018. "They do not create long-term solutions, because their contents are not implemented," Glawion added.

The crisis has deepened despite a UN peace mission in the country. "With almost 20,000 peacekeepers, it is one of the largest in the world. Nevertheless, it is weak," Glawion said, adding that both government and opposition forces are heavily armed.

The government is currently the greatest danger to its own population. For Glawion, peace can only be achieved through a united voice from the international community exerting strong pressure on both parties. "All warmongers must step down, and a civilian transitional government must be formed that can organize elections and the necessary humanitarian aid. Alongside Sudan and Gaza, South Sudan is currently the worst humanitarian catastrophe in the world."

Uganda's involvement

The rapidly expanding conflict threatens to draw in actors from the region. "Uganda has always stood by the president in South Sudan and then in the ongoing war in Sudan that began in April 2023. South Sudan is dangerously entangled in this," Akech explained. This is because the country depends on oil that reaches the market via Sudan's ports, and it is precisely in this area that the conflict in Sudan is raging.

Renewed fighting in South Sudan is forcing more and more people to fleeImage: Ashraf Shazly/AFP

Neighboring Uganda has allegedly already intervened in the conflict in South Sudan. A UN report accused Uganda in December 2025 of violating the UN arms embargo and of having sent troops and military equipment across the border.

No political will for free elections

According to Ulrich Thum, head of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Juba, the ongoing fighting and the worsening humanitarian situation are a "vicious circle that urgently needs to be broken."

"South Sudan stands at a critical turning point," Thum said. "The 2018 peace agreement is seriously endangered by the increasing armed confrontation.Trust between the signatory parties to the peace agreement has largely been destroyed, and there are no serious efforts on the part of the government to effectively contain this," he told DW.

Thum sees little political will to carry out free elections on the basis of a permanent constitution with the consent of the people.

"The South Sudanese population thus continues to pay a bitter price for the violent power and distribution struggle of the political and military elites."

This article was originally written in German

Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/at-the-brink-can-south-sudan-avert-another-civil-war/a-75769274