Three months in: Billions lost in Sudan War

This combination of pictures shows Sudan's army chief, Lieutenant-General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (R) in Juba on October, 14, 2019; and Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (L), who commands the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), addressing the media upon his return from Russia at Khartoum airport on March 2, 2022 - (Photo by Ashraf SHAZLY and Akuot Chol / AFP)

 

ALBAWABA –Three months into the outbreak of the Sudan war, observers have estimated economic losses to the civil war in the billions of United States (US) dollars, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported on Wednesday.

Unofficial estimates place the daily cost of the civil war in Sudan at nearly half a billion dollars per day, the news agency reported.

Overall, economic cost estimates range anywhere from just below $5 billion to around $45 billion in just three months, since April 15.

Economists and observers have not agreed on an estimate, but even the lowest $5 billion loss in gross domestic product (GDP) incurs insurmountable costs on Sudan’s mere $30 billion economy.

Moreover, AlAraby has reported data confirming heavy losses in some areas of the country.

The Sudanese people have been paying the ultimate price for the ongoing conflict, sparked primarily by the rivalry between army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hamidti, and their forces.

This combination of pictures shows Sudan's army chief, Lieutenant-General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (R) in Juba on October, 14, 2019; and Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (L), who commands the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), addressing the media upon his return from Russia at Khartoum airport on March 2, 2022 - Photo by Ashraf SHAZLY and Akuot Chol / AFP

Coping with the costs of the Sudan War

Head of the Economic Committee of the National Umma Party, Siddiq al-Mahdi, estimated the daily military spending and the losses of the ongoing war at about half a billion dollars per day.

Other, possibly more exaggerated estimates have set costs at nearly $10 billion dollars per day, according to AlAraby.

In a post on Twitter, Mahdi warned of civil war and the growing food shortages.

The war is destroying infrastructure and the industrial sector, contracting growth, and reducing job opportunities, he pointed. Adding that the conflict has ruined the agricultural season.

Banks are being looted and services are being interrupted, Mahdi highlighted, underlining that most agricultural lands will soon not be suitable for farming.

The failure of the agricultural season affects 40 percent of the population, increases the food gap and causes farmers to drop out of the workforce, according to Mahdi. 

Rapid support soldiers pose for a photo – Source: African Business via AFP

The overall number of Sudanese in need of food aid has increased from 15 million, before the world, to 24 million people, the official confirmed.

Inflation is also skyrocketing, as prices have increased between 300 and 400 percent.

Economist Muhammad Zain reaffirmed to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that the estimated figures, in terms of the costs of the war, may very well not be exaggerated.

Losses and costs may reach tens of billions of dollars, with the war still ongoing, he said.

The estimates vary depending on the inputs of the calculation. Factoring in the costs of the equipment and weapons will certainly exacerbate the costs, the economist explained.

Losses in the Darfur War of 2003 alone were estimated at nearly $100 billion, over the span of 10 years, Zain said.

Meanwhile, the total losses of Sudan as a result of the wars in South Sudan and Darfur, in addition to the wars in South Kordofan and the Blue Nile, may reach $500 billion dollars, he underscored.

This includes direct spending and loss of growth opportunities, in addition to the destruction of public resources and facilities and private property.

Likewise, economist Adel Abdel Aziz estimated the costs of the Sudan war on the country’s GDP at $8 billion. 

Additionally, losses are not always visible or tangible, such as losses in records, data, information, banks, databases, archives, and research, Abdel Aziz elaborated.

"This is a very high and inestimable cost," he said.

On the other hand, the economic expert al-Fateh Mahjoub argued to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that these reported figures are grossly exaggerated.

Neither one of the parties to the conflict have the ability or access to as much as one-tenth of the smallest estimated figure, he said.

In the meantime, direct financing for agriculture has not suspended operations, the contrarian economist insisted. Adding that the Agricultural Bank is running direct financing business as usual for farmers.

"The agricultural season is only just beginning. It is difficult to judge at this time, and it is difficult to predict early on whether famine is going to hit the country,” he underlined.

Accordingly, “it is difficult to accept [any of] these estimates before the war has ended,” Sudanese economic analyst Abed Wahhab Jumaa stated to Al-Araby Al-Jadeed. 

The war is concentrated in and around the capital, Khartoum, and there are 15 other states where economic activities are carrying on as usual, not directly affected by the Sudan War, he said.

People sit atop a truck carrying mattresses, plastic chairs, and other pieces of furniture parked along the road connecting Sudan's capital to the city of Wad Madani in al-Jazirah state, in Hasahisa on July 18, 2023 - Photo by AFP

Talking about famine in Sudan is just pessimism running around, as a result of the war, as it is too early to tell, according to the analyst.

The summer agriculture season depends on rain and most farmers in the municipalities and other states adopt traditional agriculture that helps them meet their daily needs, he added.

He pointed out that there are many Sudanese who depend on relief and aid because of previous wars, as the United Nations and other institutions have been working there since 2003.