South Sudan: Despite Ceasefire, a Long Road Ahead in South Sudan

On 24 January, South Sudan's government and representatives from the rebellion signed a ceasefire agreement in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, with the hope of ending more than a month of fighting. But noticeably absent from the agreement was a lasting political solution to the hostilities that addresses the root causes of the conflict.

The manifestation of violence in South Sudan has been shocking in its ferocity, but the unrest itself was not unexpected. The failure to substantively attend to the complex melee of elite personalities, ethnicity, and factionalism which has permeated South Sudanese politics since independence has led to the current conflict.

Increasing political criticism of President Salva Kiir's leadership from within the ruling party was met with repeated crackdown rather than compromise, creating a unified opposition from within, led by former vice president Riek Machar. Additionally, in under-served rural areas, disenfranchised youths excluded from the governance of the country, such as those that constitute the Lou Nuer 'White Army', continued to have few, if any, opportunities to constructively contribute to their communities.

A chance for inclusion

On the day the ceasefire was signed, President Kiir announced plans to implement further government reforms. Yet a reshuffle that was meant to streamline ministries and improve service-delivery took place only recently, in July 2013. Neither the president nor the agreements reached in Addis so far have addressed what political future there will be for the former vice president and the 11 detainees accused of plotting a coup, once they are released. A political agreement that makes room for increased plurality and addresses the issue of elite infighting within the ruling party would go a long way toward preventing an early return to conflict.

Moving forward, the provision of representative governance opportunities - and at the very least recognizing their absence - offers a more practical basis on which to build longer-term peace. Progress will require measures that address both ethnicity and participation, incorporating the concerns of the many disaffected factions of South Sudanese society into the governing of the country. The government and its international partners should work towards building the capacity of local governance and incorporating the existing complex social structures into the process constructively. This includes the voices of the marginalized as well as the frustrated male youths who are willing to fight to be heard.