Shabnam Baloch: El Niño is compounding one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises in South Sudan

Conflict, displacement, flooding, economic instability, weak institutions, food insecurity and climate change do not occur one after another – they occur simultaneously. 

Nowhere in the world is that truth more prescient than in South Sudan, one of the world’s most complex examples of protracted fragility.

The United Nations Office for the Co-ordination of Human Affairs (OCHA)’s Eastern Africa El Niño Preparedness Alert from August this year warns of a stronger El Niño expected during late 2026, bringing increased risks of both drought and flooding across the region.

For South Sudan, El Niño multiplies the harm of existing fragility – pushing already-vulnerable communities ever nearer to their breaking point.

The latest findings from April of this year showed that acute food insecurity in South Sudan is alarmingly high and continues to increase, with 7.8 million people facing extreme hunger.

In some areas, conditions have worsened, with 73,300 people now facing starvation.

The statistics do not reflect the human story behind each number. Women, girls and children remaining resilient when the choice has been taken away.

Hunger is only one element of the emergency. South Sudan is also grappling with its largest ever cholera outbreak while simultaneously coping with the risk of Ebola spreading from neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo.

Less than half of the population has access to primary healthcare – with treatable illnesses rapidly becoming a life-or-death situation without nearby clinics or staff to treat them.

Right when needs are reaching critical levels, humanitarian resources are shrinking. Around the world, aid budgets are being cut and development funding is under pressure.

The direct consequences are fewer health services, decreased necessities like food and water, reduced protection for women and girls and fewer opportunities to help communities prepare for the next shock before disaster strikes.

Despite the scale of need, the situation in South Sudan receives limited international attention.

Those of us working in Oxfam and other humanitarian organisations on the ground have seen firsthand the dangers of abandoning those most vulnerable during climate shocks – which will only continue to spread without immediate global action.

In 15 years, South Sudan has taught the world that resilience is deeply human. It lives in women who rebuild households for their young children after every flood; in communities that continue sharing scarce resources and in local leaders who continue mediating peace under impossible circumstances. 

Is the international community willing to match that resilience with the resources, political will and climate action needed?

For many people in Ireland, South Sudan can seem distant enough to disassociate. We must not forget that the forces driving the climate emergency are global and our leaders have a role to play.

Countries such as South Sudan, which have contributed least to global emissions, are paying the highest price for a crisis they did little to create.

Resilience should never become a justification for asking people to endure endless crises and ignoring El Niño’s stark warnings. 

South Sudan may be a fragile nation, but its resolve remains unbroken. We must act now to ensure its people’s dignified survival.

Shabnam Baloch is country director of Oxfam South Sudan