There were 13 military coups in Africa in recent years. Why does this keep happening?

 

A military coup this week in Niger, a land-locked former French colony, marked the 13th attempt − 10 of them successful − to overthrow a government in Africa since 2020, according to researchers.

Experts said it's difficult to concisely explain the large volume of coups in Africa's Sahel region. Some point to the presence of extremist militant groups, corruption and poverty that can be linked to France's colonial legacy, as well as that country's introduction of the idea of an entitled political elite empowered, but not safeguarded, by the military. Some of the coup leaders are popular and backed by the populace.

Niger's coup, its fifth since it gained independence in 1960, follows warnings from regional leaders and international bodies such as the African Union and Economic Community of West African states that an increasing number of African governments are being overthrown, threatening the democratic process and jeopardizing the fight against terrorism. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned that hundreds of millions of dollars of U.S. security assistance to Niger are at risk. Recent coups in neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali have resulted in closer ties for those countries with Russia^[1].

Jonathan Powell, a professor of security and International affairs at the University of Central Florida whose research has focused on tracking coups around the world going back to the 1950s, said it is "absolutely fair to say empirically that this region is the coup capital of the world right now."

From 1950 to 2022 there were 486 attempted coups around the world − 242 of them successful − according to Powell and his research partner Clayton Thyne of the University of Kentucky. Africa (214) has seen the most, followed by Latin America (146), East Asia (49), the Middle East (46) and Europe (17).

Turkey saw a bloody coup in 2016. Just last month there was a failed coup in Russia. Definitions of coups vary but it's generally accepted that they involve an attempt by a country's military or other government elites to illegally take power. The Jan. 6 insurrection by a mob of supporters loyal to former President Donald Trump may not, defined this way, qualify as an attempted coup.

Kamissa Camara, a former foreign minister to Mali, said there are few compelling arguments that wholly explain why the Sahel, the vast semi-arid region between the Sahara Desert to the north and its tropical savannas to the south, in which Niger prominently sits, has experienced so many coups in recent years. In fact, the area is often referred to as the "coup belt."

"These are very different countries. Their militaries are not really communicating with one another. Some of the geopolitics, security issues and cultures are similar, yes. But there is no one size fits all justification," says Camara, who is now a senior advisor for Africa at the United States Institute of Peace research organization.

But Camara, like Fatai Alli, a U.K.-based expert on security issues in West Africa who served in Nigeria's military before becoming a researcher at the University of Portsmouth, said there's no question that France's persisting political, economic and cultural foothold in the region is a contributing factor.

"You can't avoid the past," Alli said.

Col. Maj. Amadou Abdramane, front center, makes a statement late on July 26, 2023, in Niamey, Niger, as a delegation of military officers appeared on Niger State TV to read out a series of communiques announcing their coup d'etat.

Powell said that, with some exceptions, coups in Africa have increasingly been "undertaken with more caution − there have been efforts to try to avoid violence."

For example, while in the first two decades after African countries started gaining their independence from European nations, most coups in Africa ended with the execution of the removed leader, "that doesn't really happen anymore," Powell said.

Here's a list of recent coups in Africa.

Niger: In the 'coup belt'

Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum was detained Wednesday by mutinous members of his presidential guard. Military leaders said they acted because of a "deteriorating security situation and bad governance."

Bazoum, 64, was elected president two years ago. He has been an ally for the West as it has sought to target Islamist insurgents in the region and stave off the encroaching influence of the Russian mercenary group Wagner.

Olivier Guitta, a London-based terrorism expert who runs GlobalStrat, a security consultancy, said that Wagner has for months been using social media to try to discredit Niger's government as it seeks to gain influence there. He described Niger as "very significant" for the fight waged against Islamist terrorism by the U.S. and France."

Blinken became in March the first U.S. Secretary of State to visit Niger, when he called the country "a model of resilience, a model of democracy, a model of cooperation” in the region.

In a defiant message posted on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter on Thursday, Bazoum, while detained, said the "hard-won achievements (of Niger) will be safeguarded. All Nigerians who love democracy and freedom will see to it."

On Friday, General Abdourahmane Tchiani declared himself Niger's new leader.

Bazoum is still detained. There is no indication he has been harmed.

"Right now everything is calm. It feels normal on the streets," said Kamed Abdoulaye Algoumaret, a security and intelligence analyst in Niger's capital Niamey, when reached by phone. Algoumaret said a coup in Niger was inevitable because the government under Bazoum was "aimless" and had failed to cracked down on insurgents.

He said that many people in Niger blame France for the country's instability, whether to do with its security issues, economic woes or corruption.

Burkina Faso: A pair of coups

President Roch Kabore was ousted by the army in January 2022 in the first of two coups in Burkina Faso i^[2]n one year. The military blamed Kabore for failing to contain violence by Islamist militants in the country's north.

He was placed under house arrest and released two months later.

In September that same year, as the violence worsened, Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba, the coup leader who removed Kabore and pledged to restore security, was himself removed from power by Captain Ibrahim Traore. Analysts say Burkina Faso has replaced Mali as the epicenter of insurgent violence in the Sahel.

Mali: coups make a comback

Mali has experienced two coups within a short period of time while struggling struggled with ethnic violence compounded by warring militant groups. In the wake of anti-government protests in August 2020, a group of colonels led by Assimi Goita ousted President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita.

Keita later died of a stroke while at home.

A retired colonel named Bah Ndaw was installed as interim president. He was then ousted by the coup leaders in May 2021 and Goita, who was temporarily serving as vice president, was elevated to the presidency.

Mali is due to hold a presidential election in February.

Sudan: a failed attempt − and violence

Sudan's military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan survived what he described as an attempted coup in April this year when a rival general sought to seize control of the resource-rich nation.

Sudan has slowly been transitioning to democracy since the removal of President Omar al-Bashir from power in 2019 in a popular uprising. During this time the military has shared power with civilians.

According to the Sudanese Health Ministry, more than 3,000 people were killed when General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, the head of a rival paramilitary group, tried to oust Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.

The deaths included those of combatants and civilians caught in the crossfire.

Dagalo is still alive but has receded from public view.

Sudan has a long history of attempted coups. There have been more than a dozen since the late 1950s.

Guinea’s coup leader: elections, but not right now

An army unit seized power in Guinea in September 2021, deposing President Alpha Conde.

He was allowed to leave for Turkey, where he received medical treatment.

The year before there was widespread rioting after Conde altered the country's constitution to allow him to stand for a third term. He was ousted by a special forces colonel named Mamady Doumbouy.

Doumbouy has promised to hold elections in early 2025.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Niger latest 'coup belt' country to see government overthrown^[3]

References

1. ^{^} closer ties for those countries with Russia (carnegieendowment.org)
2. ^{^} two coups in Burkina Faso i (commonslibrary.parliament.uk)
3. ^{^} Niger latest 'coup belt' country to see government overthrown (www.usatoday.com)