South Sudan: Nation Looks to Machar, Kiir for National Reconciliation

The arrival of South Sudanese rebel leader Riek Machar in Juba and his swearing in as Vice-President on Tuesday set the stage for the formation of Transitional Government of National Unity.

Most residents of Juba are yearning to put the two-and-a-half years of civil war behind them and looking to the transitional government to end the instability that has prevailed since independence in July 2011.

"We are now looking forward to the unity of all the 64 ethnic groups and the equal distribution of the peace dividend," said Jacob Chol, the head of political science at the University of Juba.

However, there are still concerns among city residents over security arrangements after the arrival of the former rebel soldiers in Juba, as well as the lingering questions over the ability of President Salva Kiir and Dr Machar to work together.

Alfred Taban, the publisher of Juba Monitor, says the return of Dr Machar is a good start and that the August 2015 peace agreement is real, though the concern is whether the transitional government will function smoothly.

"The two are starting off as competitors, with each of them eyeing the 2018 elections, said Mr Taban.

According to the agreement signed in August last year, President Kiir will pick 16 Cabinet ministers, the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO) will have 10 ministerial slots while the former detainees and other political parties will have two each to make up a 30-member Cabinet.

Mr Chol said that it is not going to be easy since President Kiir and Dr Machar have a history of not getting along well. However, Mr Chol emphasised that the international community must be firm with the South Sudan leadership because experience has shown that they work better under pressure.

"There is sufficient optimism that the country will recover because the issues at hand are not peculiar to South Sudan, but it will take time to build strong institutions and change the prevailing mentality from war to peaceful co-existence," said Mr Chol.

This means that Festus Mogae, the former president of Botswana who is heading the Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (JMEC) that is overseeing the implementation of the peace agreement, will be key to the survival of the transitional government in the next 30 months.

Mr Mogae has since the beginning of the year proved that he is capable of breaking the ice between the two. Two weeks ago, Mr Mogae persuaded President Kiir to allow Dr Machar to take the oath of office on arrival after some hardliners in the government argued ruled against it.

Chapter 8 of the peace agreement allows JMEC to interpret the agreement whenever there is a misunderstanding in the Cabinet, where the decision of the Council of Ministers will require a two-thirds majority, which President Kiir no longer has.

"The new arrangement is good for oversight in the government but it is also a recipe for paralysis," said Mr Chol.

One of the key challenges is that Dr Machar -- according to the August 2015 peace agreement--will also command a separate army and police for 18 months before the two forces are integrated into the national army under President Kiir.

This security arrangement has not gone down well with some hardliners in President Kiir's coterie, especially the Chief of General Staff, Gen Paul Malong Awan, who last year rejected the peace agreement as having been imposed on South Sudan by the international community.

The Troika -- the US, UK and Norway -- has been providing most of funds for the peace process and is expected to play a key role in ensuring that the two fully implement the eight chapters of the agreement in the next 30 months.

John Kirbi, the US State Department spokesperson, early in the week said that the scope of future US engagement in helping South Sudan confront the country's security, economic and development challenges, will depend on the parties demonstrating commitment to work together to implement the agreement.

The transitional government has its hands full. It is supposed to initiate economic and security sector reforms, launch the constitutional review process and set up a commission for national reconciliation.

Former foreign affairs minister Dr Barnabas Marial Benjamin said that even though there is not enough time to achieve all the items listed in the peace agreement, essential reforms in the institutions of governance will be achieved.

"The only remedy to the post-war situation will be the forthcoming elections where the people of South Sudan will get a chance to elect leaders of their choice after relevant reforms are put in place," said Dr Benjamin.

Adel Sandrai, a member of parliament in SPLM-IO, said that the positive thing about the transitional government is that it will open up space for political competition and reduce the hegemony of SPLM, because parliament will also include other political parties, youth, women and the clergy.

"This super animal called SPLM will no longer be there for the next 30 months. It will reduce the arrogance and impunity of the military and politicians because most South Sudanese have realised that military solutions have failed and it is political solutions that will take the country forward," said Mr Sandrai.

The agreement increased the number of MPs in the interim period to 400 from the previous 332, with SPLM-IO getting an additional 50 members, former detainees one, and other political parties 17. President Kiir is expected to appoint five more MPs from the Political Parties Alliance led by Dr Lam Akol, the leader of SPLM-Democratic Change.