How civil wars in Sudan and South Sudan jeopardise Africa’s security

South Sudan, the world’s youngest country, is facing the imminent risk of a resurgence in civil war (Representational image: REUTERS)

Without meaningful intervention, both Sudan and South Sudan risk becoming the epicentre of the next great African crisis

The ongoing civil wars in Sudan and South Sudan are among the most complex and interconnected conflicts in the world today. Though distinct in their origins and dynamics, they are increasingly intertwined. This convergence is not merely a matter of geographical proximity as it involves shared actors, overlapping interests, and a complex web of alliances and enmities that transcend national borders, threatening to spill over into a larger regional war that could destabilise the entire region and beyond.

Sudan: A War of Attrition and Collapse

The conflict in Sudan erupted in April 2023 when two former allies, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, popularly known as Hemedti, turned against each other. Initially centred in the capital, Khartoum, the conflict quickly spread nationwide, morphing into a grinding war of attrition.

As each side continues to try to gain an advantage by seizing natural resources and cutting supply lines, the consequences of this war have been catastrophic for the civilians. More than 150,000 people have been killed, and over 12.5 million displaced. Half the country faces severe food insecurity, while over 30 million people need humanitarian aid. The health system is near total collapse, with diseases spreading and medical infrastructure in ruins. Sudan now constitutes the locus of one of the world’s most extensive and acute displacement and humanitarian crises.

The international community has so far failed to broker peace. Mediation efforts from the US and Saudi Arabia in Jeddah could not produce any outcome, so as negotiations initiated by Egypt, the UAE, and Switzerland. External actors, often with competing agendas and support for different factions, have only added to the chaos.

South Sudan: Fragile Peace and Rising Tensions

Meanwhile, South Sudan, the world’s youngest country, is facing the imminent risk of a resurgence in civil war. The 2013-18 conflict between President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Riek Machar caused immense devastation and displacement. Although the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict (R-ARCSS) was signed in 2018, peace has remained elusive.

The fragile unity government formed under the R-ARCSS agreement has repeatedly postponed national elections. Tensions have risen dramatically since early 2025 following a series of cabinet reshuffles, arrests of opposition figures, and the house arrest of Vice President Machar. Clashes in Upper Nile, Bahr El-Ghazal, and Equatoria regions have raised fears of another full-scale conflict.

The humanitarian crisis in South Sudan is also exacerbated by climate change, economic instability, and an influx of refugees from Sudan. Currently, the peace process is under immense strain, with both the Tumaini Peace Initiative and the 2018 peace deal stalled.

Convergence of Two Conflicts and its Regional Implications

Amidst this, the most alarming development is the growing entanglement between these two wars of Sudan and South Sudan. The February 2025 alliance between Sudan’s RSF and South Sudan’s SPLM-North (SPLM-N) represents a pivotal moment, setting the stage for a pan-regional conflagration.

SPLM-N controls large swaths of South Kordofan, and Blue Nile states adjacent to the South Sudan border. This alliance opens up new logistical and military corridors for the RSF, allowing them to smuggle arms and supplies through South Sudan and Ethiopia. In response, the Sudanese army (SAF) has begun arming the South Sudanese militias, known as the White Army, to counter this alliance, creating a proxy war landscape along the 2,000 km shared border.

If South Sudan collapses into full civil war, the borders between the two countries, already porous and poorly controlled, will become entirely militarised and destabilised. With both Sudanese factions now fostering ties with South Sudanese actors, the boundary between the two wars is blurring. If South Sudan descends into full-scale conflict, the distinction between two civil wars may disappear entirely, creating a regional war.

As the region strategically located at the crossroads of the Red Sea and the Sahel with 12-15 per cent of global trade and 20 per cent of global container shipping. If the situation doesn’t de-escalate, it would result in significant disruption to global trade through significant increases in shipping costs, longer transit times, and supply chain issues.

As a matter of fact, the ramifications of this convergence is already stretched well beyond the two countries’ borders, driven by a combination of interrelated factors that exacerbate existing tensions and instability. For instance, Uganda has been actively involved in South Sudan’s peace process and has deployed troops to South Sudan’s capital Juba to bolster Kiir’s government.

Ethiopia shares borders with both Sudan and South Sudan and has historical ties to various factions within these countries. Given Ethiopia’s own ongoing ethnic conflict in the Tigray region, any escalation in the Blue Nile risks drawing Ethiopia into the conflict, particularly if its border regions become conduits for arms smuggling, rebel activity, or the movement of displaced populations. While not directly involved, Kenya is also concerned about the potential for increased refugee flows and regional instability affecting its security and economic interests.

Further, countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Russia are already playing significant roles in these conflicts, whether through the provision of arms, facilitation of gold smuggling, investment in oil infrastructure, or competition over strategic access to the Red Sea. These foreign powers support rival factions within Sudan and South Sudan, contributing to the fragmentation of the conflict and increasing the likelihood of its internationalisation.

A Dangerous Path Forward

The convergence of the wars in Sudan and South Sudan represents a critical tipping point for the region. As the region is already contending with several challenges, including food insecurity, climate change, and political fragility, it requires urgent and coordinated international action. Furthermore, the intertwining of these two conflicts, fuelled by internal divisions and external interventions, threatens to engulf the region in a broader war with devastating humanitarian consequences.

In light of the evolving situation, the international community must prioritise diplomatic engagement, humanitarian assistance, and support for regional peace initiatives to prevent further escalation and work toward a stable and peaceful future for the region. The African Union, the United Nations, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) need to intensify their mediation efforts.

Establishing and safeguarding humanitarian corridors is essential to ensure the effective delivery of aid to affected populations. Furthermore, principal stakeholders must prioritise inclusive political solutions and transitional justice mechanisms that address root grievances. Without meaningful intervention, both Sudan and South Sudan risk becoming the epicentre of the next great African crisis, with profound and far-reaching implications for regional and global stability.

Samir Bhattacharya is Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

Source: https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/how-civil-wars-in-sudan-and-south-sudan-jeopardise-africas-security-13902138.html