Kiir’s gamble that could slip South Sudan back to war

South Sudan's President Salva Kiir (PHOTO | AFP)

A decision by South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit to fire three of his cabinet ministers in a space of one week has sparked wide criticism and condemnation from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO).

On March 8, Kiir sacked the country’s Foreign Minister, Mr Mayiik Ayii, his close ally who previously served as the minister of the presidency.

Mr Ayii’s dismissal came a few days after he dismissed and later swapped the ministers of defence (Ms Angelina Teny) and interior (Mahmoud Solomon) without any explanation.

It is yet difficult to link Mr Ayii's firing to those of the defence and interior, which have threatened to destroy a fragile peace deal with opposition leader and First Vice President Riek Machar.

Kiir fired the country's defence minister Angelina Teny, who is also Machar's wife, and interior minister Mahmoud Solomon in a presidential order on March 3.

In his decree, Kiir tendered the defence ministry position to his party, a role which, under the terms of the agreement, is meant to be allotted by Machar's party. In exchange, he handed Mr Machar's party the interior ministry slot.

However, the SPLM-IO (Machar’s party) condemned and rejected Kiir’s decision. In a statement authored by its leader, Mr Machar on March 4, 2023, the party conditioned Kiir to withdraw the decree and reinstate Ms Teny to save the progress of the agreement.

“The swapping of the ministries equally violates the provision of Article 1.12.1 of the Agreement which requires the Parties to agree on the allocation and selection of ministerial portfolios in the RTGoNU,” SPLM-IO said in a statement.

Article 1.12.1 of the R-ARCSS states that “the parties shall, during the Pre-Transitional Period, agree on the allocation of the Ministerial and Deputy Ministerial portfolios. If the parties fail to agree.”

Whereas Kiir and Machar were expected to meet on Thursday to try and resolve their differences, following the dismissal of Ms Teny, Kiir shocked the nation when he fired Mr Ayii the same day without any explanation, thus flopping the meeting.

The decision has also been criticized by key parties to the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) who say the unilateral decision waters down progress so far achieved under the agreement and could slip the country back to war.

On Thursday, the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission (RJMEC) called for consultation and negotiations between Kiir’s party and the opposition’s SPLM-IO specifically to resolve issues emerging around the removal of Ms Teny.

“We urge the parties to observe the letter and spirit of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan, which is founded on collaboration, consultation, and agreement between the them. With less than 24 months of the extended transitional period remaining, it is important that this issue be resolved as soon as possible so that the peace agreement can continue to be implemented,” RJMEC stated.

Kiir and Machar's forces signed the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) in September 2018 which ended five years of civil war that killed 400,000 people and caused Africa's biggest refugee crisis since the 1994 Rwandan genocide.

The RJMEC was then constituted under the agreement to monitor and oversee the implementation of the agreement including the adherence of the parties to the agreed timelines and implementation schedule.

Implementation of the deal has however remained slow and the opposing forces have clashed frequently over disagreements about how to share power.

In February 2020, South Sudan formed the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (RTGoNU), a provision of the agreement.

The RTGoNU, led by Kiir Mayardit as president, saw the swearing-in of the leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon, as the first vice president.

In August last year (2022), South Sudan signed a two-year extension of the transitional government.

Although its foreign partners warned that the move lacked legitimacy, President Kiir explained that the extension was the only option for preventing the nation from relapsing to war.

“We don’t want to rush you to elections that will take us back to war. I have been fighting since I was 18, and you can see now how old I am. The extension is better than war, and so we have extended the period to implement the pending provision,” he said.

According to him, the implementation deadline was not met due to several challenges including unmet requirements and provisions warranting the 24-month extension up to December 2024. This is the second time the parties have extended the transitional period.

South Sudan, one of the world’s poorest countries despite large oil deposits, has suffered from war, natural disasters, hunger, ethnic violence and political infighting since it gained independence in 2011.