Are Elections the Answer for South Sudan?

(linkedin)

Situation

South Sudan was supposed to have its presidential elections in 2023. Despite the many challenges and growing insecurity in the country, President Salva Kiir maintains that the planned general elections will still take place in 2023.

 Analysis

 The delay in implementing the power-sharing agreement - Revitalized Agreement for Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) which was signed in 2018 presents a serious dilemma for the planned presidential elections. The president has made it clear that the elections will hold as planned. The question daunting question is: how prepared is the country for a general election when inter-communal conflicts have flared up? My fear at this stage is that going forward with the elections without strengthening electoral institutions, ending communal violence, and putting in place mechanisms for free and fair elections will only lead to the legitimization of those who have been responsible for violence in the country.

R-ARCSS presented South Sudan with an opportunity to set the country on a path toward stable and lasting peace. The international community and regional partners have been working with the government to implement the agreement. Unfortunately, just a few areas of the agreement have been implemented. Elections or no elections, there is still much to be done and the work of peacebuilders is far from over in the country.

Pushing for elections at this stage is a mirage that the country is at peace and there is progress in democracy. But elections will not resolve difficult issues and the underlying causes of conflict in South Sudan. The government of South Sudan has made efforts in implementing R-ARCSS, as President Salva Kiir in 2020 appointed five vice presidents: the opposition leader Dr. Riek Machar and four other vice presidents. These appointments marked the beginning of a three-year Transitional Period. R-ARCSS mandates the transitional government to organize elections to organize general elections at least sixty days before the expiry of the agreement. It is important to recognize that the country is not ready for elections at the moment. The efforts made by both government and partners mustn't be squandered by pushing for elections as it is clear the country does not have the necessary institutions and capability to manage its internal and external affairs peacefully. The continued violence within communities means many will not participate in the elections.

Despite efforts from different stakeholders to implement R-ARCSS, the prognosis for the peace in South Sudan is not encouraging. Violence in South Sudan is systematic and complex. As such, we need a systemic solution to address the conflict. The first stage in implementing R-ARCSS, building strong and accountable institutions, before moving to elections.

Organizing general Elections is not a panacea for peace in South Sudan. There is still so much to be done before any general elections can be organized in South Sudan. The challenge is not just about the implementation of R-ARCSS but also reviewing the 2012 Political Part Act which must be approved by the parliament before general elections can be organized, and the permanent constitution should be enacted. Coupled with the current communal conflict, there is much more to be done than simply rushing for an election.