South Sudan Leaders Make Another Attempt at Peace

The agreement, which reinstates the embattled Mr. Machar, is the second attempt to end the conflict that erupted in 2013 and the third arrangement that will see the two men, each leading a different ethnic group, share power since the state’s inception in 2011.

But the fact that the new accord looks a lot like the one that failed in 2016^[2], leading to the bloodiest part of the civil war in South Sudan, is making observers worry it won’t work.

“The critical question is how to avoid a repeat of the 2016 implosion of the last accord. At its core, this is the same peace deal. The last peace deal proved a disaster,” said Alan Boswell, an independent expert.

Regional powers, who have long meddled in South Sudan’s affairs, are deeply involved in this new attempt at peace taking place under the auspices of East Africa’s political body, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, or IGAD. Sudan and Uganda in particular have previously participated on opposite sides of the conflict, with Khartoum arming Mr. Machar’s forces while Kampala provided military backing to Mr. Kiir’s government.

“During past peace attempts, it was mainly between Machar and Kiir,” said  Brian Adeba, deputy director of policy at rights group Enough Project. “This time round, there are many parties—including regional foes Uganda and Sudan—and this effectively cuts them off from meddling,” he added.

In 2011, when South Sudan gained independence after a long war with Sudan, Messrs. Kiir and Machar shared power as president and vice president. That arrangement fell apart, and in late 2013 the country collapsed into conflict roughly along ethnic lines, between Mr. Kiir’s group, the dominant Dinkas, and Mr. Machar’s smaller Nuer group.

Mr. Machar took to the bush and became a rebel leader.

An agreement between the two, intended to ease ethnic tensions through shared state institutions, took effect in April 2016, and Mr. Machar rejoined the government as vice president. The accord collapsed three months later, and Mr. Machar fled to South Africa, where he has been living in exile since.

In the past two years, the landscape of the civil war devastating South Sudan has become more complex, with opposition groups splintering and the population suffering even more.

One-third of South Sudan’s roughly 12 million people have been displaced, including nearly 2.5 million fleeing to neighboring nations, according to the United Nations. Another two million need the international community to feed them as they face severe food shortages^[3]; parts of the country were declared in famine^[4] for several months last year.

Government troops have been blamed for much of the devastation. A U.N. panel of investigators said in March that dozens of senior army officials have likely committed crimes against humanity^[5], including mass rapes and civilian murders.

The economy has been destroyed by the conflict, contracting by 11% last year, according to the International Monetary Fund. Oil production has stalled to a near-halt, and bouts of hyperinflation, measured in March at more than 160%, have dramatically eroded the value of the local currency.

And in a crackdown against dissenting voices, journalists have been imprisoned or killed, and foreign media are often banned from visiting South Sudan, which is also the deadliest place on earth to be a humanitarian worker, according to the U.N.

Last week, a vocal critic of both South Sudan leaders, Harvard-educated activist and economist Peter Bier Ajak, was arrested in the capital Juba and has been held incommunicado in the national intelligence headquarters since, according to his family and international community representatives in Juba, including the U.S. Embassy.

“We are asking for his release and for more information about really what the case has been about,” the U.S. ambassador to South Sudan, Thomas Hushek, said Thursday.

The country’s independence was backed and funded by the U.S. and its fledgling life has been propped up with more than $10 billion in U.S. aid since then—nearly $1 billion last year alone.

The fresh attempt at peace comes as the Trump administration considers changing a longstanding U.S. policy in support of the leadership in South Sudan, and conducts a review of its aid programs to the country^[6].

In a visit in late 2017, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Nikki Haley, warned President Kiir that U.S. support would end if the war didn’t. The U.S. led a U.N. arms embargo in July^[7], and China and Russia, who normally block such initiatives, abstained.

Despite its heavy investment in South Sudan’s birth and future, the U.S. holds little commercial interests there. By contrast, China owns most of the oil-rich nation’s natural resources and contributes the largest contingent of soldiers to the U.N. peacekeeping operation there.

The White House said last week it was “skeptical” Messrs. Kiir and Machar will be able to oversee peace in South Sudan, adding it was “deeply concerned” about the renewed peace process.

“To differentiate from previous failed agreements, the parties must genuinely commit to robust security and enforcement mechanisms, inclusion of a wide range of constituencies in governance, and clear limits to executive power,” a State Department official said.

—Courtney McBride contributed to this article.

Write to Matina Stevis-Gridneff at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and Nicholas Bariyo at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.^[8][9]

References

1. ^{^} exiled former Vice President Riek Machar (www.wsj.com)
2. ^{^} the one that failed in 2016 (www.wsj.com)
3. ^{^} they face severe food shortages (www.wsj.com)
4. ^{^} were declared in famine (www.wsj.com)
5. ^{^} senior army officials have likely committed crimes against humanity (www.wsj.com)
6. ^{^} conducts a review of its aid programs to the country (www.wsj.com)
7. ^{^} led a U.N. arms embargo in July (www.wsj.com)
8. ^{^} This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (www.bing.com)
9. ^{^} This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (www.bing.com)