Can A Peaceful Divorce Between South and North In 2011 Be Made Possible For The Future Of Sudan?

With less than six months “164 days” remaining from a landmark event: the referendum on whether Southern Sudan will remain part of a united Sudan or secede, many have acknowledged including some leaders in the North that Southerners are likely to vote to secede and have their own new state in Africa since Eritrea. However, managing this peaceful divorce as it has been described by many leaders in Sudan requires commitment from both two parties, NCP and SPLM. Without a change in the dynamic between the two parties, they are unlikely to be willing or able to confront the key issues between them.

The NCP leadership is playing it pretty dirty and speaking two different languages. President Al-Bashir has said, the referendum on whether South Sudan should secede cannot take place until the internal border is decided as a vote on a possible new country without a clear border would be a recipe for a new war, he added. But the SPLM has angrily dismissed linking the two issues. Also a senior NCP official, Ibrahim Ghandour, told the BBC he did not want Sudan to follow the example of Ethiopia and Eritrea. Eritrea split from Ethiopia in 1991, but the two countries are still arguing and have fought over the precise border.

Recently during his interview with the Arabic daily newspaper “Al-Sharq Al-Awsat” the Sudanese Foreign Minister, Ali Ahmed Karti said that it is better to have a peaceful divorce between South Sudan and the North if unity is impossible! He also played down the on-going bids searching for access to the rule of confederation between North and South Sudan stressing that, what is happening between the two partners is for the implementation of the CPA by conducting the referendum saying that those who propose the confederation as substitute for secession are providing ideas for dialogue outside the corridors of the negotiations, he added.

On the SPLM side, in an exclusive interview with DW-RADIO in Juba, South Sudan's President Salva Kiir Mayardit says he is committed to the January 2011 referendum on independence. “According to the CPA, we agreed to facilitate the implementation of the agreement and by the end of the interim period, the referendum must be conducted. Now it’s time for both parties to be committed to conduct the referendum freely without any hindrance. I’m sure and hope that the referendum will be conducted as per the CPA. There is no way, not even in our agenda and there’s no condition to force the South Sudan for UDI “Unilateral Declaration of Independence”. As I said that a one-sided declaration of independence for the semi-autonomous region was not on SPLM or GoSS's agenda, he added.

Government of South Sudan Minister of Information and Broadcasting Dr. Barnaba Marial Benjamin told the BBC that, linking the border issue with the referendum was "illogical and unacceptable". He agreed that the border must be demarcated but said if this was not done by January 2011, the referendum should still be held as planned.

The roadmap to overcome all these tensions would be:

1. A change in current trends is needed to avoid further political violence in Sudan.
2. The parties need a shared sense of confidence about post 2011 futures.
3. The North should cooperate in the referendum process and accept the outcome.
4. States and non-state actors that wish to play a central role in negotiations on post 2011 arrangements should demonstrate a long term commitment to Sudan to overseeing implementation of any agreement.
5. The NCP should admit that it has failed to make unity attractive and also that it helps reengaging with dissident groups in the South.