WAR and PEACE…. IN SUDAN

April 29, 2010- Although the author of the above-mentioned subject seems to think that war between the south and the north before or after the referendum might not be immanent, and could be avoided with the involvement or intervention of the USA, I am rather pessimistic to think that Obama administration international policy as of now, hasn't any hint to justify their interference in such small problems of South Sudan.

They seem to think that the South has got what it is entitled to and any additional claim is nothing but mere troublesomeness. President Obama himself seems not to know where to trace his roots. He needs to know that the cradle home of the Luo Family of which the Kenyan Jo-Luo originates from is at Wicpac-Lake No.the focal point of divide of Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile States in South Sudan . So if 'blood is thicker than water,' or 'charity begins from home,' Obama should have started his African Administration Policy in Sudan .

However, I must empathetically assert that No northern Sudanese Arab leader can ever sign under his hand the separation of the Sudan into two or more countries. For background information, it should be noted that the 1st elected government of the Sudan after Independence , handed power to the military on November 17, 1958 just to avoid granting the South federation which the parliament had agreed to grant in its sitting on January19, 1955. In fact the southern MPS vote for independence was obtained after the passage of the federation bill. The 21st October 1964 Revolution was staged as a result of the civil war in the south. The 25th May Military Revolution again, the 20th April 1985 Uprising, and the 30th June 1989 Revolution of Omer Basher, all were staged as a result of failure to solve the southern problem. In short no one whatsoever can sign an agreement among the northern Arabs, whether with the south or west or east granting some transfer of power or wealth or any benefits. In fact such action to them amounts to sin.

The 21st October 1964 Revolution Transitional Government convened a Round-Table- Conference in which the southern political parties presented Federation, Self- determination and Separation. Addis Ababa Accord 1972 was abrogated in 1983 with full endorsement by the whole north. We have now all witnessed how the government of Bashir has been dragging its feet on the implementation of the CPA. We have seen how they are not moving forward in the Darfur front or eastern problem. If the north could dishonor Juba Agreement 1947, 19th December 1955 Parliamentary Resolution granting the south federation, and Addis Accord 1972, and some other agreements not mentioned here, when the south was not known to have any economic viability, how can they be expected to give up oil wells which they had dug with their own hands and without any southerner so near to serve them tea?

In the formation of the GONU in 2005, the SPLM presented their list of ministers to President Omer Beshir with Chemical Engineer Dr.Lam Akol Ajawin to the Ministry Of Energy And Mining. How was it? Oil to be handled by a southerner? Ya wa ziballah. Now Dr Lam, the 1st from among the SPLM leadership to tell the NIF ICONS in Frankfurt that he was in politics in order to peruse self-determination for the south as advocated by his father and for which his own brother late Dr Justin Papiti Akol was killed in a wedding party in Wau 1965, has given up the struggle and is in alliance with Omer Beshir calling for unity. The results of the recent elections clearly show that the Shilluk youth are all behind him. Just imagine General Oyay Deng Ajak losing election to a villige school teacher and despite the advice of His Majesty the Reth of the Shilluk tribe. The Shilluk people have been known worldwide to be resistant to foreign domination particularly their northern neighbours, the Arabs. As of now, they seem to prefer to remain with the Arabs, because of just one thing, President Salva Kiir Mayardit has confiscated the Shilluk land and given it to the Dinka and the other Dinka elder people like Abel Alier who know the facts on the ground, are just silent instead of volunteering advice against such irresponsible actions.

Other indications to suspect that Omer Beshir might not honor the southern vote for secession are that one, Kaka town which is inside Upper Nile State on the River Nile, is now being claimed by the north. I suspect that they might need it to rush their forces from El Obeid including the janjaweeds to protect the oil wells at Felluch and Melut. Two, northern army general in charge of their forces in the United Joint Military Command in Upper Nile State has chosen to be stationed in the strategic town of Nasir instead of Malakal. Three, the UAE is reported to have bought land at Jebel Buma and is constructing an airport there. Four, Fangak Nuer have always been fertile ground for recruited of militias favorable to the northern army. Five, the former militias so-called friendly forces under the command of General Paulino Matip,General Clement Wani and General Ismail Gonyi as far as I know are still receiving salaries and other privileges from the central government in addition to what they get from the southern SPLA.

Six,Omer Beshir is well aware of the fact that the senior SPLA Generals who contested elections as independents were disowned by Salva and are so angry to the extend that they would not be expected to join the war if it occurred tomorrow. Seven, the SPLM/A have humiliated the veteran southern politicians by depriving them of the peace benefits and rigging elections calling them Arab stooges despite the contributions they had made for over 50 years. Eight, the Arab World has now poured in money for development plus the Egyptian case of the Nile Waters.

In a nutshell I am afraid that the north is strongly united with the Arab World and will sabotage the independence of the south. The safety of the southern bid for separation can only come if a person like Ambassador Susan Rice could be appointed as USA envoy to Sudan particularly for the referendum. Secondly, Salva should appoint a commission from among the southern experierenced elders for inter-tribal conflicts resolutions.

The author is a South Sudanese currently living the United States ; he can be reached at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.