The Farce Called Yasir Arman’s Bid for the Presidency

On Wednesday, the SPLM announced that it was withdrawing its candidate for the President of the Republic in the current elections from the race. The official reason given was the lack of security in Darfur and fears on the fairness of the elections process.

For some of us who know the situation in the South and in the SPLM, the withdrawal was not news at all. Yasir's candidature was doomed from the start, some said it was a bad joke. It was clear from the beginning that he has not gotten a chance to win for many reasons.

Soon after his nomination in Juba, the overjoyed Yasir announced in Khartoum that he was "the gift of the South" for the Presidency! But, was he? This preposterous claim has no foundation. It was quickly exposed by the campaign. President Al-Bashir drew huge crowds in the South, which according to Yasir and his chums was to be his bastion of support. In the North, there was no sign of noticeable support for the SPLM candidate except ironically in Western Darfur where the campaign rally they held was well attended. This was to be expected because Yasir was responsible for the slow death of the Northern Sector of the SPLM, yet he kept feeding the SPLM's Political Bureau with rosy reports about how he was doing an excellent job as Head of the Northern Sector and they believed him. As the elections campaign progressed, it did not take long for the SPLM leadership to realize that they were heading for a mincing at the polls. The decision to withdraw him was, therefore, a face-saving exercise. The question is: at what cost or price?

The SPLM has been swinging between alliance with the Northern Opposition and cooperation with the National Congress Party. Which side is to be served by this concession?

The SPLM has to learn the art of negotiation. Withdrawing Yasir at this late hour when he has been exposed to lack impact on the outcome of the Presidential race is certain not to bring it any dividends. This concession would have been meaningful had it been done when he was still an unknown quantity, when many thought he was to mount a credible challenge. He is now a burnt card impossible to sell.

The reasons given for Yasir's withdrawal are not convincing. Nothing has changed in Darfur since the time Yasir filed his nomination. Therefore, the situation in Darfur cannot be a plausible reason for withdrawal. As to doubts about the fairness of the elections process, it should be applying across the board and therefore, if true, it should have been a reason to boycott the entire elections, as the Opposition suggested, and not just the Presidential elections.

The withdrawal of Yasir is a desperate attempt to save SPLM's faltering elections campaign. Al-Bashir's rallies are drawing huge crowds in the South which the SPLM leadership had assumed would have voted solidly for Yasir. This is the case in the North as well. It is now clear to all that not only will Al-Bashir win in the first round, but that he will win with a landslide. On the other hand, the campaign of Dr Lam Akol for the Presidency of the Government of Southern Sudan which some observers discounted at the beginning is now taking the upper hand. Salva Kiir's camp is in a state of confusion as to how to counter Lam Akol's effective campaign. They resorted to "stealing" his campaign slogans. Suddenly, Salva is now for change!! Which change?

Thus, it is possible that the withdrawal of Yasir's candidature is a bargain in order to save Salva Kiir from imminent defeat, by telling the NCP to support him for President of GOSS in return for the SPLM supporting Al-Bashir's bid for the President of the Republic. But will the NCP swallow this bait? As mentioned earlier, the value to be added to Al-Bashir by the withdrawal of Yasir is negligible. In any case, the NCP was already publicly directing its members and supporters in the South to vote for Kiir. So, what is new? Is Al-Bashir desperate to get the votes that would have gone to yasir in the North? The reality tells us that even the few with Yasir are the fringe die-hards who would not vote for Al-Bashir anyway. The NCP is not stupid not to be aware of these facts.

The biggest loser is the Northern Opposition that was counting up to the time of SPLM's announcement on the hope that the SPLM will at least boycott with them the elections in the North. The decision came cold on their shoulders that the SPLM was after all going ahead with the elections. Not that they are confident to win or unwilling to stand in solidarity with the Opposition, but because their backers want them to stay in the race. The Opposition to its chagrin has refused to accept the fact that the SPLM's decision is controlled by its benefactors. This was the case at the end of November last year when the so-called Juba Alliance was to announce a boycott of the elections. The SPLM was told not to. Again, during the demonstrations before Parliament in December, the SPLM was told to strike a deal with the NCP, and it did leaving the Opposition in the cold. There are many similar occasions where the SPLM had to go against its commitment with the Opposition in order to please its benefactors. When will this Opposition learn?

To assuage the Opposition, the SPLM is now saying that it will meet the Opposition to discuss the boycott of the elections. This is an insult to the Opposition. If that was in the cards why withdraw the Presidential candidate before time? Nobody will be fooled.

The stage is now set for the elections to take place. The withdrawal of the Opposition if it happens will be a no event. The Opposition will have to lick its wounds. This is a price you pay when you deal with an incredible ally. The biggest winner in all this is the Sudanese people who will have a chance to choose their leaders.

Michael Deng.