Election phobia to political parties in Southern Sudan

By Daniel Amum Odwel

After unsatisfactory census result was released by Census Commission and endorsed by two parties of Comprehensive Peace Agreement, gloomy future for the southern people began to surface clearly.

This result implies that wealth share for Southern Government will reduce, because this wealth will be share according to outcome census. This means the Government of south Sudan is not going to receive what they are receiving today. Indeed, this will have negative impact on the Government of Southern Sudan performances, for even with the previous share they were not able to execute what they supposed to accomplish. Moreover, the census result will show that the whole south seats in national Assembly will decrease badly, instead of being second force in the Assembly, they will be minority and their voices will not be effective on decision making in the house. Nevertheless, this result will deepen more division among the southern, for it is noticeable that other communities will not be well presented in where decision is being taken either at regional level or national level. This census result indicated that Nuer population is half of Dinka population and Collo population is less then quarter of million, this is unbelievable census outcomes.

Seriously this census result is a great blow to southern aspiration, and the southern need to blame them (SPLM) because they had allowed census to be conducted during rain season whereby the move is impossible in the south Sudan.

No point for SPLM Political Bureau to panic from this result because they were very people who accepted go ahead with the census in unreasonable time. Therefore, whatever they cultivate is whatever we are harvesting by now.

Election fever has begin to mount very high, the SPLM position is not full certain for winning the majority, for most of their hoping and assuming constituencies were reduced to nothing, for example some populated communities which had four or five constituencies previously will have only one constituency according to result of this census. Then the majority which SPLM spoke about before census result, is now becoming illusion and gone dream that will be never be attain for two reasons: First of all even if the SPLM is going to win all constituencies in south it will not give them majority in parliament in national Assembly. Second, it will be very difficult for northern communities to vote for infidel leader from the south, because of religious superior complex disease in Islamic society.

The coming election seems paradox to SPLM Political Bureau, for it has two challenges: positively conducting the election is an indication of the implementation of CPA in the spirit and letter but negatively it impacts will be obnoxious because we cannot determine the outcome of that election. Probably this is the real hysteria to SPLM government. For this reasons some of influential cadres within SPLM begin to think about boycotting the election and this will be grave suicide for whole CPA implementation process. Others think if they contest in coming election and fail, then their statutes quo will be reduce to nothing and privilege they are enjoying by now will not be acquire again. This mix feeling made SPLM Political Bureau undecided for candidate for presidency position. Indeed, if this is real situation within ruling party in southern Sudan Government then what is the way forward? In case SPLM failed to make their position clear to the public within these days, their supporters and sympathizers will decline and what happen to Fatiah in Palestine will be eminence to SPLM party. For sure SPLM party seems oblivion that provided room for obloquy to their administration

Others southern political parties have their own phobia which is consists of lack funds to shoulder their political activities that made them vulnerable to dictator's wealthy parties in northern to execute their destructive agendas in the south, or they become dependence on SPLM support. In this regard they cannot be critic outstanding opposition parties that can challenge any wrong doing within ruling party but they become followers of corrupted system. Presumably other problem that will be face by these parties is intimidation from the army which is under control of SPLM party. Practical in recent months some key leaders from opposition parties were prevented to conduct a rally in some parts in south Sudan by the army. Then how can we practice democratic system in this land? Therefore, if the situation continues with this violations atmosphere in the south, then no single opposition party that will win any constituency because they will be terrorize by this unethical army which seems unapproachable. As result of those short coming of every party, these parties are living in paranoid state.

These parties should be reminded that divided people cannot stand against any small outside pressure, or divided nation cannot progress, for some will be trying to build while other will try hard to dismantle what were built.

Let be keen to face this challenges with open minds and determination because our future fate is in our hands, divided minds cannot appreciate what others had contributed. Let try to examine what the Bible says:'' If you dig a pit (for your brother) you will fall in it, if you start rolling stone (on your brother) it will roll back on you'' (seeProv26:27). Another crucial example might be found in the book of Esther, whereby Human made cruel plot to kill innocent man Mordecai, but God intervention turned his plot to himself. Indeed, king exclaimed that ''Hang Human on his own tower that he made for hanging Mordecai. Human was hanged on the tower he had build to hang Mordecai, and the king calmed down'' (Esther7:8)

Yes truly there was deadly mistake committed by ruling party in south by allowed census to be conducted in unreasonable time. But in this juncture it is necessary for SPLM party to consult other parties to seek their opinions about the way forward in this issue. Indeed, if we are not going to tackle this matter critically it will eliminate all of us without exemption and will abort CPA that is the only hope for southern survival in this nation. On other hands the opposition parties must pardoned SPLM party in this moment of uncertainty but not blindly. Well they must give constructive resolutions that may ensure implementation of CPA. There is no option of quit or boycotting the coming election because that may implies abolition of CPA that my give NCP party upper hand to claim that southern cannot govern themselves. For this reason I urge SPLM party to face that challenge without being regrettable with hope that 2011 will be final time whereby we will not seen the face of the oppressor dictators regimes forever as Israelites never saw the face of Egyptians when God released them from captivity.