S. Sudanese conflict to cost $I58bn in 20 years: report

January 10, 2015 (JUBA) – An estimated $158bn could be lost over the next 20 years, should South Sudan’s ongoing conflict continue unabated, a newly released study shows.

"South Sudanese People’s Liberation Army (SPLA soldiers patrol the streets of Bentiu, on January 12, 2014 (Simon Maina/AFP)

The report, entitled “South Sudan: The Cost of War” comes in the wake of renewed clashes between the country’s warring parties as peace talks mediated by the East African regional leaders faces delay.

The 28-page document compiled by Frontier Economics, the Center for Conflict Resolution (CECORE) and the Centre for Peace and Development Studies (CPDS) at Juba University also takes into account the economic and financial costs of the South Sudanese conflict on its neighbouring nations as well as other African states

According to the report, between US$22.3 billion and $28 billion could be lost, if its current conflict continues for one to five years.

“The Cost of War report shows there are severe economic costs that have not previously been known that must now be acknowledged. Next week at the AU summit in Addis Ababa, all Heads of African States must realize that South Sudan’s economy and our people simply cannot afford to forgo billions of dollars it will cost to endure five more years of conflict”, warned Luka Biong Deng from CPDS.

South Sudan has been in turmoil after political disputes within its ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) leaders sparked violence in December 2013.

Since then, tens of thousands of people have been killed and about 1.8 million displaced in the country’s worst outbreak of violence since its 2011 independence.

"There can be no price tag on the suffering of South Sudan’s people from displacement, famine and death," Salim Ahmed Salim, the ex-Tanzania premier former secretary-general of the Organisation of African Unity wrote in its forward.

"But it is possible to assess the direct economic costs by estimating the loss of productive assets and capital and the reduction in economic activity, and they are large,” he adds.

Human costs of conflict, death, hunger and disease, the report says, also have significant longer term economic impacts; estimating that $6bn could be lost due to effects of hunger on labour productivity if the conflict raged on for five years.

An estimated between $122 - 158billion could be lost, if the effects of the South Sudanese conflict were measured over a 20-year period.

DEFENSE EXPENDITURE

According to the new study, South Sudan’s spending on security could reach $2.2 billion, if the conflict lasted another five years.

“The savings in military spending that would result from resolving the conflict within a year from now would allow South Sudan to meet the internationally recommended target of allocating 20% of spending to education,” partly says the new report.

“The economic costs of the conflict to date are substantial, with a projected drop of 15% in South Sudan’s GDP for 2014,” it added.

The conflict, characterised by brutal killings, rape, forced recruitment of children, mass displacement and destruction of livelihoods shows no end signs, despite peace efforts.

Local and international human rights bodies accuse both warring parties in the South Sudanese conflict of committing crimes against civilians in the over one year conflict.

The report further looked at the economic aspects of the conflict, ignoring break-down of social cohesion, sexual violence, child exploitation or environmental degradation, which are difficult to capture in their entirety in an economic cost benefit analysis.

REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS

Meanwhile, the report projects that the costs of conflict to South Sudan, its neighbours and the international community are likely to increase at an accelerating rate, the longer the conflict persists.

For instance, it says Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda could between them save up to $53 billion if the South Sudan conflict were resolved within one year than allowed to last five years.

“Countries in the region, most notably Uganda and Kenya, may incur substantial financial costs relating to security needs. Figures reported for Uganda suggest that defence expenditure incurred as a result of the conflict is around double the government’s projected capital investment budget for the health sector for the coming financial year, and close to the capital investment budget for education,” says the report.

“If the conflict ended within one year rather than 5, the international community could save an estimated $29 billion by reducing expenditure on peacekeeping and humanitarian assistance,” it adds.

But to prevent the risk of South Sudan becoming a failed state, the report advocates for increased pressure on the parties to the conflict to end the fighting by implementing targeted individual sanctions, that include an arms embargo on to the young nation.

“If there is a return to large scale hostilities in 2015 as many predict, IGAD [Intergovernmental Authority on Development] and the AU [African Union] Peace and Security Council should implement targeted, individual sanctions that include an arms embargo,” it says.

The United Nations Security Council, it adds, should adopt a complementary international targeted sanctions regime that includes an arms embargo.

“However, if IGAD and the AU fail to adopt and implement these measures, the UN Security Council should lead and adopt such a sanctions regime,” the report recommends.

It also urges the African Union Peace and Security Council to publicly release findings of its inquiry on South Sudan as soon as possible and use those findings as the basis for imposing targeted individual sanctions such as asset freezes and travel bans.

(ST)