South Sudan: No End in Sight for South Sudan Peace Talks?

October 9 was the deadline for a peace deal between South Sudan's rival factions. The talks have barely budged in months and the international community seems to lack the will and means to bring an end to the crisis.

They were supposed to end the fighting and establish a unity government by the beginning of October. If this was not achieved, announced IGAD, an East African regional body, action would be taken against those responsible for the crisis. Yet the deadline has passed and instead of slamming the government of Salva Kiir and Riek Machar's rebel groups with sanctions, IGAD has extended the deadline. This time until October 16.

The inconsequential passing of the deadline shows the helplessness of the negotiators. Since May 2014, IGAD, a regional body which includes Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Uganda and Somalia has spearheaded the talks. They invited Kiir and Machar to Ethiopia. They set deadlines. Yet like this one, the deadlines went by almost unnoticed and without consequences.

International experts like Wolf-Christian Paes of the Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC) see little hope for an outcome of the peace talks in the near future. "At the moment we can't even speak of an actual peace process," he commented.

Atrocities on both sides

South Sudan had only gained independence from the Republic of Sudan 2011. The civil war erupted at the end of 2013, when President Kiir accused his deputy Riek Machar of plotting to overthrow him. Machar and his supporters broke with the government.

The fighting that erupted threw the country into an ethnic conflict that has cost over 1,000 lives and has driven hundreds of thousands from their homes. Over 10,000 people currently live in crowded UN camps , which can do little to protect them in the case of a large scale attack. Human rights groups say that both parties have committed atrocities and war crimes.

IGAD, says the conflict expert Paes, has proven itself a "toothless tiger" when it comes to South Sudan. And the world, he thinks has lost interest in the conflict. "To my knowledge, the UN Security Council has made no serious attempts to implement sanctions against the warring parties in recent months," says Paes. Not even an arms embargo is in sight.

Deep seated tensions

The most recent talks came to a standstill over the creation of the new prime minister's post for an interim government. The post would be given to a representative of the rebel faction and it's holder would head the government alongside the president. Both sides had initially agreed to the plan, but they were unable to agree on the role and responsibilities that would come with the position.

This brings us to the heart of the problem, explains Nhial Tiitmamer, director of the South Sudanese think tank, the SUDD Institute. The conflict is about power. "No side has come out and said, we don't want transitional justice, we don't want reconciliation," he notes. "The powersharing seems to be the controversial point at the moment." The end of the conflict, he believes, lies in the question whether Kiir and Machar's parties are willing to split the power.

According to Tiitmamer all the diplomatic pressure and the sanctions will not solve the crisis. "The hate propaganda that has been going on has made it very difficult for the parties to really realize that the country is bigger than individual egos," he says. Perhaps foreign go-betweens could help to breakdown the hate and mistrust between the political parties and the different ethnic groups. "The IGAD talks should be supplemented with efforts to build trust," Tiitmamer advises.

South Sudan afterall has experience peace-building and reconciliation. The periods of peace with the Republic of Sudan and building of an independent South Sudan are examples of how at least a fragile peace was established after years of brutal civil war.