South Sudan: Nation at a Crossroads

Nairobi — The failure of peace talks and the end of South Sudan's wet season could unleash fresh fighting between government forces and rebel factions, propelling millions of people in the world's youngest nation back towards a man-made famine, analysts and humanitarian workers warn.

Nine months of bad-tempered negotiations have yet to produce a firm ceasefire, let alone a political deal to end a conflict punctuated by atrocities. Skirmishes have continued in areas close to where thousands of civilians are crammed into UN bases. There are fears that both sides have used the seasonal lull to re-arm.

Surging violence would roil plans by the UN and humanitarian partners to use the dry season to patch up roads and other infrastructure and pre-position critical supplies before the meagre returns from the current disrupted harvest run out in early 2015. The rains usually begin to ease by late October.

"It is going to be a combination of a quieter environment for the people of this country, plus the continuation of a large aid operation, that will help people get through the dry season," Toby Lanzer, the UN humanitarian coordinator in South Sudan, told IRIN. "If either of those two are absent, disaster will occur."

Background

The conflict erupted in December 2013, when an intensifying power struggle between President Salva Kiir and former vice-president Riek Machar boiled over into fighting within the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) in the capital, Juba.

Violence quickly engulfed much of the north and east of the country, pitting troops loyal to Kiir against rebel units and militias aligned with Machar. Thousands of civilians are believed to have died, many of them targeted for their ethnicity. Kiir is an ethnic Dinka, Machar a Nuer.

According to the UN, the violence has displaced 1.3 million people within the country, including about 100,000 sheltering in often squalid conditions in UN bases. With agriculture disrupted, livelihoods lost and trade patterns wrecked, nearly four million face serious food insecurity. Another 450,000 have fled to neighbouring Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda.

Peace talks

Those countries, as part of the IGAD regional grouping, have tried to broker an agreement between the warring parties. Seeking to address root causes of the conflict, IGAD as well as foreign donors also have pressed the two sides to sign up for far-reaching reforms as well as a power-sharing deal in a transitional government. The mediators have threatened "punitive" action against spoilers.

But the feuding South Sudanese factions appear far from reaching agreement.

Machar last month refused to sign a detailed protocol mapping a way out of the conflict, even though it offered to create the position of prime minister for an opposition nominee. The protocol also included commitments designed to de-centralize power, rein in corruption and foster reconciliation.

The talks have continued but suffered another blow last week, when government spokesman Michael Makuei Lueth demanded the removal of the Ethiopian chief mediator, accusing him of pursuing "regime change" at the behest of the USA, the UK and Norway. He reportedly also demanded that the process relocate to Kenya.

The protagonists have warned of all-out war if the talks founder, fanning concern that while the politicians declare their commitment to making peace, commanders on both sides are preparing new military campaigns.

Peter Biar Ajak, director of the Centre for Strategic Analyses and Research in Juba, said the failure of rebel forces to make any significant gains in recent months may have encouraged the government to pursue a military solution.

In the dry season, government troops can make use of heavy weapons including tanks and armored vehicles that the rebels lack, and the government's rejection of the Ethiopian mediator might be a delaying tactic, Ajak told IRIN.

"If [the talks] are moved to Kenya, I don't see the possibility of making substantial progress before the rainy season ends. And maybe this is where the government's line of thinking is going: 'If we can drag this out until the rainy season ends, then we can have a military victory,'" Ajak said.

The absence of an agreement has fanned concern that the war could escalate into a crisis pitting Uganda against its regional rival Sudan.

Uganda sent troops to prop up Kiir's government at the outset of the trouble, and there has been speculation that the rebels could receive support from Khartoum. Sudan accuses Uganda and South Sudan of supporting rebels in its Darfur, North Kordofan and Blue Nile regions

Ajak said a breakdown of the IGAD talks combined with a government offensive would also make it harder for the Ethiopian government to resist pressure from the Nuer-dominated authorities in its Gambella region, which borders South Sudan, to support the rebels.

"If it becomes an issue of war, Machar will do anything, whatever possible, to make sure he doesn't lose," Ajak said.

Why no deal?

Analysts point to South Sudan's brutal history as well as a lack of sustained diplomatic pressure to explain the readiness of its political elite to use violence in pursuit of power and wealth, with little apparent regard for the suffering of ordinary civilians.