South Sudan: Does South Sudan's Peace Process Face Collapse?

document

On 21 August 2014, the Peace and Security Council (PSC) will consider the situation in South Sudan. With no progress achieved since its last session on South Sudan on 12 June 2014, at this session the PSC will be updated on the current situation in the country and the challenges facing the peace process in the run-up to its planned mission to South Sudan at the end of August - the first such mission by the PSC this year.

During its 12 June session, the PSC expressed its deep concern over the failure of 'both the government and the SPLM/A in Opposition [SPLM/A-IO] to meaningfully move forward the peace process and bring an end to the senseless killing of innocent civilians'. The PSC also strongly condemned 'the continued and flagrant violations of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement [CHA]' and 'the widespread atrocities and abuses committed by all sides against innocent civilians'. Demanding that the parties end the fighting and show the required political will to advance the political process, the PSC expressed its readiness to 'take targeted sanctions and other measures against any party that continues to undermine the search for a solution to the conflict and fails to honour its commitments'.

Condemning the SPLM/A-IO's attack on Nasir town on 20 July as a violation of the CHA in a 21 July press release, African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma called on the South Sudanese parties, in particular the SPLM/A-IO, to comply fully with all the agreements they had signed. The statement also stressed the urgency of finding a lasting solution to the conflict and reconvening the political talks to facilitate the early establishment of the transitional government, as envisaged in the 9 May and 10 June agreements.

Escalation of violence

The 20 July fighting in Nasir was the first major confrontation since June and resulted in further internal displacement and the flight of refugees to neighbouring Ethiopia. On 15 August fighting broke out again around the town of Bentiu, the capital of the northern oil state of Unity, as well as in the Ayod region of Jonglei state. As with previous instances, the two sides accused each other of initiating hostilities and violating the CHA.

Rebel spokesperson Lul Ruai Koang claimed that the attack was the start of the long-awaited government offensive, while army spokesperson Joseph Marier Samuel said government troops acted in self-defence after the rebels had launched a dawn attack in Ayod. Fighting was reported to have continued for several hours in Bentiu around the key airport zone outside the town, close to a United Nations (UN) base that shelters more than 40 000 people fleeing the conflict. The city, now under government control, has changed hands several times since the civil war broke out in December 2013.

The parties to the conflict continue to hold to their divergent positions and seem unwilling to end the conflict through negotiation.

The ceasefire breach and the subsequent accusations and counter-accusations have become a common cycle. Both parties also continue to make media statements rejecting accommodation, which fuel further hostilities. The humanitarian situation has reached an alarming stage with the UN warning of a serious famine affecting millions in the country. With little progress having been made in the mediation process, the volatile conditions are set to continue, leading to further deterioration of the dire humanitarian situation.

A peace process facing collapse?

The conflicting parties had signed a deal on 9 May 2014 committing themselves to the establishment of a transitional unity government, among others, and reaffirmed the deal at a meeting on 10 June, yet they remain far away from ending the violence and achieving a negotiated settlement. As they failed to honour previous commitments, they also failed to meet the 60-day deadline for the formation of the transitional government.