East Africa: The Crisis in South Sudan - a Game of Regional Chess

For the past five months, the government and opposition forces in South Sudan have been locked in a destructive political and military crisis.

Diplomatic efforts have thus far failed to secure a lasting ceasefire - let alone lay the groundwork for a negotiated political settlement. As a result, the volatile security situation in the Horn of Africa has only worsened.

Indeed, the crisis has added a new dimension to existing tensions in the region - between Uganda and Sudan on one hand, and Ethiopia and Eritrea on the other.

Every day the crisis continues^[1], additional pressure is placed on these states that have, for some time now, been locked in a distrustful and suspicious relationship to support one side or the other.

As one official involved in the ongoing diplomatic efforts pointed out, 'the longer the conflict drags on, the more the possibility of fixing South Sudan fades, and the higher the risk of greater regional competition.'

There are obvious tensions between Sudan and Uganda - which no longer share a land border, and are respectively South Sudan's oldest enemy and closest ally.

Uganda has security-related, political and economic interests, which prompted it to intervene militarily in South Sudan in support of the government.

Historically, Uganda provided substantial support to the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) during its armed struggle against Sudan, which reciprocated by giving support to the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA).

Uganda also sought to protect its lucrative bilateral relationship with South Sudan since it had recently become a major trading partner, to the detriment of Sudan's geopolitical and economic interests.

It also aimed to protect the thousands of Ugandans working and operating businesses in South Sudan. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni assiduously cultivated close personal ties with South Sudanese President, Salva Kiir.

The scenario most feared by Uganda is an outright victory by the opposition forces, which are heavily linked to the Nuer ethnic group and led by former vice-president Riek Machar - also from the Nuer group.

References

1. ^{^} Every day the crisis continues (www.issafrica.org)