South Sudan: Nation's Uncertain Future - First End Ugandan Military Support for Kiir

As the IGAD led mediation talks resume in Addis Ababa, South Sudan's political future looks uncertain. Despite the signing of a ceasefire, fighting continues in three of the most volatile and strategic states.

International Crisis Group and the UN estimates that the violence has claimed at least 10,000 civilians and left more than 800,000 displaced since mid-December.

Two months into the crisis, neither diplomatic pressure nor mediation talks have had an impact in restraining the warring parties.

Rather than strive for a political solution, the government of South Sudan seems to have made the calculation that a military advantage over the rebels and a political purge of dissenters from within the party is the best solution for resolving the conflict.

As a precondition for ending the fighting, rebels have demanded a withdrawal of foreign military forces siding with the government and the release of four remaining political detainees, amongst them, the SPLM's former Secretary General.

Meanwhile, South Sudan's President Salva Kiir has taken a defiant stance against the opposition mediators, responding by affirming foreign military presence, laying treason charges on senior SPLM officials he accused of orchestrating an alleged coup and unilaterally terminating their membership from the ruling party - this included publicly announcing their positions as vacant.

As things stand, the mediation talks are a mere side show of political posturing. Neither side has the urgency and will to commit to a genuine mutual solution.

The most likely scenario is of a protracted and sporadic armed conflict, mass killings along ethnic lines and displacements as rebel groups fight to exert control and recapture lost territory. It is foreseeable that territorial control will change hands many times between Government and rebel forces.

The unfortunate consequence of this will be that much time and resource will have been spent trying to squash rebels at the expense of nation building and reconciliation.

While South Sudan's Government has relied on foreign troops to quell rebel forces and protect strategic infrastructure, it has been unable to protect and feed its own civilians.