Nairobi (AFP) - An alleged coup and heavy fighting in South Sudan's capital highlights the bitter fault lines and fragility of the newly-independent nation, analysts and observers say.
Oil-rich but grossly impoverished and awash with guns from the decades of war that led to South Sudan’s independence in July 2011, internal divisions rooted in the long years of civil war boiled over on Sunday.
"Who fired the first shot and what their motive was is not clear to anyone... but it has opened up a very nasty can of worms," said a senior South Sudanese security source close to the presidency, warning that the fighting pitted rival factions of the ruling party -- the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM)-- and the corresponding loyal units within the ex-rebel SPLA army.
"Divisions within the SPLM are no secret, but since this incident has unfolded, there will be no easy way back for those in the fighting, their bridges are being burnt."
President Salva Kiir was swift to blame troops loyal to his arch-rival and former deputy Riek Machar, a controversial leader who fought both with and against Kiir during Sudan's brutal 1983-2005 civil war, and staged a failed coup against the mainstream SPLA in 1991.
Kiir, dressed in military fatigues rather than his usual dark suit and cowboy hat, insisted on Monday that the situation was "under control", and imposed a dusk until dawn curfew.
[1]Riek Machar, then Vice-President of South Sudan, speaks before the United Nations General Assembly a …
But battles raged for a second day Tuesday across the ramshackle capital, amid fears the fighting could spread elsewhere in the country.
South Sudanese media reported several former ministers have been arrested, but there was no news on the fate of Machar, with his telephones -- and those of several of his aides -- unanswered since the fighting began.
In a hardline speech, Kiir called Machar a "prophet of doom" who continued "to persistently pursue his actions of the past".
Andrews Atta-Asamoah, of the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies, warned that a "knee-jerk response from pro-Kiir members of South Sudan's army against alleged pro-Riek (Machar) cadres will worsen the situation."
Whether clashes began as a coup plot gone wrong or unplanned fighting sparked by long running ethnic and political tensions, many fear the violence is now being used to purge political rivals.
[2]Civilians seek protection, arriving at the UNMISS compound adjacent to Juba International Airport fo …
Ethnic divisions
"Old scores are being settled," said a South Sudanese journalist, who asked not to be named. "Now the political fighting has turned into bloodshed, the government will want to put an end to this once and for all."
Kiir comes from the majority Dinka ethnic group – which also holds key leadership positions in the army – while Machar comes from a branch of the Nuer tribe, who form a key part of the foot soldiers in the military.
Machar's troops were accused of a brutal massacre in the ethnic Dinka town of Bor in 1991.
Some are sceptical that Machar really planned a coup, noting that he peacefully made open political challenges to Kiir earlier in December while the president was out of the country.
[3]Young civilians rest inside the UNMISS compound adjacent to Juba airport on December 17, 2013 (AFP P …
"The key issue to consider is who stands to gain from casting Riek in a negative light and reminding South Sudan, and the international community, of his past?" wrote Lesley Anne Warner, a research fellow at the US-based National Defense University.
"The answer is, President Kiir, who needs to bolster his own image as South Sudan’s leader in light of the cabinet reshuffle, and in the run-up to elections in 2015."
Officials have been keen to downplay the ethnic divisions, noting that the government includes ministers from across South Sudan’s tribes.
"These are political differences, not ethnic differences... the country needs to find a way forward to solve political differences peacefully," US special envoy for Sudan and South Sudan Donald Booth told the BBC.
Some point out that when Machar accused Kiir of "dictatorial" behaviour earlier in December, he was supported by a multi-ethnic group, including Rebecca Garang, the widow of South Sudan's founding father John Garang.
Foreign Minister Barnaba Marial Benjamin has also spoken on Juba’s radio stations calling for calm, insisting it was "not a tribal conflict", and stating that those found guilty of being part of the "failed coup" will be tried, and if found guilty, jailed.
But South Sudanese say they fear the worst may yet to come.
"It's not just a question of arresting those responsible," said Majak Deng, a South Sudanese businessman currently in Kenya. "This is about years of problems that have to be thrashed out."
- Politics & Government
- Unrest, Conflicts & War
- South Sudan
References
- ^ Riek Machar, then Vice-President of South Sudan, speaks … (news.yahoo.com)
- ^ Civilians seek protection, arriving at the UNMISS compound … (news.yahoo.com)
- ^ Young civilians rest inside the UNMISS compound adjacent … (news.yahoo.com)
Source http://news.yahoo.com/south-sudan-fighting-highlights-fragile-state-203409829.html
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