Climate change and conflict in South Sudan: Community perceptions and implications for conflict-sensitive aid

Executive summary

This report explores the nexus between climate change, conflict and aid by focusing on community perceptions of climate change patterns and trends, perceptions of how climate and conflict interact, perceptions of aid and conflict sensitivity considerations, and the extent to which the aid sector has been integrating climate and conflict sensitivity strategies into their intervensions in the case study locations. It draws on existing literature and field research conducted in two case study locations: Kapoeta in Eastern Equatoria State, and the Mangala-Bor Corridor, between Jonglei and Central Equatoria States. It aims to identify and reflect some perspectives of South Sudanese affected by both climate change and conflict. Following an introduction, Sections 2 and 3 present findings from community consultations in the two case study locations. Section 4 discusses consolidated findings, and Section 5 offers concluding remarks and recommendations for aid agencies working in South Sudan.

Key findings from Kapoeta

Communities in Kapoeta reported anecdotal experience of increased frequency, severity, and length of dry periods and droughts, which are associated with loss of pastureland, drying up of ponds, and crop failures over the last 20 years. Many interviewees reported that changing climatic conditions increased the prevalence of invasive weed species, changed the pattern of wildlife movements, and induced new human and animal diseases, affecting communities. Respondents also linked the effects of climate change to the risk of conflict under some circumstances. Participants described how, as dry spells have become longer, pastoralists have altered migration patterns, sometimes encroaching onto land considered to be the preserve of other tribal communities and staying longer in locations where water and pasture remain available. The subsequent pressures on scarce natural resources have contributed to tensions flaring between communities, although notably this tended to be more specifically when these communities have pre-existing grievances. Where communities have a history of previous co-operation over access to pastureland and water, tensions appeared to be rarely exacerbated.

Participants also identified conflict sensitivity challenges faced by aid agencies operating there. Perceived unfairness in employment opportunities, inequality in access to food aid and an inadequate level of humanitarian response were all cited as common grievances. Aid agencies operating in Kapoeta recognise many of the challenges associated with climate change and conflict. However, we identified a few examples of aid actors prioritising conflict or climate-sensitive action in practice in Kapoeta.

Key findings from the Mangala-Bor Corridor

The main climatic challenge identified in the Mangala-Bor corridor was an increase in the prevalence and severity of flooding. This has undermined many of the coping strategies previously available to communities, resulting in the mass displacement of people into neighbouring areas and the swelling of the already over-crowded IDP camps. The resultant pressures on land, and resources and services, have exacerbated existing tensions within and between communities. On-going insecurity across much of Jonglei State and the Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA), coupled with the expansion of flooded areas, has forced many Dinka pastoralists to change their seasonal migratory patterns. As pastoralists move further south, they have increasingly come into conflict with Equatorian farmers, who see the arrival of the cattle camps as a threat to their livelihoods.

Participants pointed to a range of conflict sensitivity challenges faced by aid agencies. Many people noted that aid responses risk exacerbating tensions between IDPs and host communities in Mangala if relief aid distributions are seen to disproportionately benefit one community over the other. IDPs highlighted what they saw as an inadequate and poorly targeted response by aid actors as a source of tension, with several blaming this on the politicisation of their displacement. The view that aid agencies offered only limited and short-lived support, to avoid accusations of incentivising them to stay longer in the area, was shared by several people. Tensions between host and IDP communities in Mangala Town have been further complicated by the establishment of competing governance arrangements by the governments of Jonglei and Central Equatoria States. Thus, even though some aidagencies in Mangala and Bor are aware of many of these risks, few seem to have the capacities or expertise to support integrated conflict and climate sensitive action.

Consolidated analysis and implications

Such climatic changes have significant consequences on people in South Sudan, with varying levels of severity and impact on communities. Communities that are already displaced or reliant on aid face the dire consequences of climate change, and women and other marginalised groups are among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Those with access to more diversified livelihood strategies, such as regular employment or active engagement in the market economy, or with access to powerful political patronage networks, are likely to be least adversely impacted by climate change. Across both case study locations, we found evidence that climate change is exacerbating tensions and triggering conflicts between certain groups, and in some instances making violent conflict more likely. Participants described increasing tensions as Toposa and Dinka Bor pastoralists have altered their annual migratory patterns due to flooding or drought. Yet, communities also described how insecurity and conflict were inhibiting their ability to effectively adapt to the effects of climate change, creating a vicious cycle in which climate and conflict impacts become self-reinforcing.

At the same time, the case studies illustrate that the links between conflict and climate change are complex and can only be understood in conjunction with an awareness of broader social, political, economic and gender dynamics within affected communities. Participants in both case studies, for example, pointed to the strength of pre-existing social or familial ties and a history of ‘cordial social relations’ between communities, as critical determinants of whether potential tensions resulting from changing migration patterns or increased pressure on resources, resulted in increased tension or greater levels of mutual dependency and co-operation.

The impacts of climate change and their links with conflict are highly gendered. Women in both locations are disproportionately affected by increased scarcity of potable water and crop failure on account of their roles as the primary providers of food and water, as well as carers of children and older people. Generally, lower levels of literacy and social standing mean that women often have fewer alternative-livelihood options than men, when displaced from their communities. In some instances, this is forcing women to engage in risky activities, such as travelling further to access water, child marriage, brewing, and selling of alcohol or prostitution. The social standing of men, however, is intimately linked to their ability to build and maintain a herd of cattle. As the effects of climate change make this more difficult, so the incentives motivating men and boys to engage in cattle raiding or other forms of organised violence, such as joining militia or armed groups, become stronger.

Finally, aid actors face a range of tricky conflict sensitivity challenges in their work in both case study locations, and that there has been an insufficiently strong focus on integrating conflict-sensitive approaches into responding to the needs of communities affected by climate change. The impact of climate change on community resilience, already intense, is only likely to escalate over the coming years. Subsequently, needs will almost certainly increase and the challenges that aid agencies face will become more complex.

Recommendations

International Donors and UN agencies at the national level should:

• Review the South Sudan National Action Plan (NAP), adopted in November 2021, from a conflict sensitivity perspective, and consider whether and how implementation contribute to social cohesion and conflict prevention.

International Donors and UN agencies with operations in Kapoeta and/or Mangala-Bor should:

• Ensure that durable solutions to displacement crises recognise and address both the push and pull factors related to climate and conflict driving displacements and avoid exacerbating tensions between displaced and host communities.

• Work with local government and community groups to identify and support transhumance corridors, designate seasonal migratory routes and establish or support locally accepted mechanisms to negotiate shared access to scarce resources for pastoralist and farmers and host communities.

• Ensure that learning from previous examples of successful climate adaptation and conflict resolution mechanisms employed by communities across South Sudan is captured and disseminated across the aid community in the country.

International Donors, UN agencies and INGOs with operations in Kapoeta and/or -Mangala-Bor should:

• Identify and support mechanisms used to build dialogue and facilitate shared access to scarce resources across communities. Agencies should avoid creating or imposing new mechanisms where existing systems may be in place, and which may enjoy greater legitimacy than anything introduced from outside.

• Ensure the design and implementation of flood management and drought alleviation systems are informed by broad-based community consultations, including with people from across social and ethnic divisions.

• Provide targeted support for women and girls to build resilience to both climatic and conflict - related shocks.

INGOs, and other operational aid agencies working in Kapoeta and Mangala-Bor should:

• Acknowledge and take action to address grievances over access to employment held by many young people in Kapoeta, Mangala and Bor.

• Ensure that eligibility criteria used to identify and prioritise recipients of aid enjoy broadbased community buy-in.