Eastern Africa Market and Trade Update, October 2022

Highlights

Although global food and fuel prices have decreased since the price spike that started February through June 2022, this has not been reflected in domestic commodity prices as they are still elevated and continue to rise. Most domestic currencies in the region have been a free fall against the US$ and weakening trend is expected to continue through the end of the year.

Despite the start of seasonal harvests in unimodal areas, the prices of staple cereals remained significantly higher in the third quarter, much elevated than previous year and the recent fiveyear average in most markets. Staple commodity prices increased m-o-m in most markets in Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan, due to a reduction in stocks and localized factors (drought, macro-economic challenges, conflict etc). Maize prices however decreased in Uganda and parts of Tanzania due to supply from the below-average June-toJuly harvest.

The high cost of food and fuel will keep upward pressure on inflation across the region. The continued increase in cost of living is expected to constrain disposable income and purchasing power of low-income households.

There is an overall concern of a tight global and regional supply outlook for maize due to weather related lower production prospects in the European Union, the United States of America and in Eastern Africa amidst export restrictions by Tanzania limiting WFP’s grain source markets.