Drought to continue in Greater Horn of Africa, experts warn

(kbc.co.ke)

The drought conditions currently ravaging the Greater Horn of Africa region are expected to worsen deeming expectations of recovery for the region that has experienced drought for over three years.

Climate scientists meeting under the auspices of the 62nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum are predicting that rainfall is expected to be depressed, meaning below average rainfall during the October, November to December short rains season.

The scientists basing their findings on outputs from eight Global Climate Centers which were processed using three approaches to fit the climate of the GHA, say the drought conditions in Kenya, Uganda Somalia and Ethiopia is expected to continue.

The climate scientists brought together under the Igad Climate Predictions and Applications Center (ICPAC) are attributing the scenario to the cooling of temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean which is an indication of La Nina conditions as well as the Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is denying the region the much-needed moisture that would then bring rainfall to the region. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has a cooling condition on the Western Indian Ocean along the Eastern Africa coast and a warming on the Eastern Indian Ocean around Australia, which results in low moisture on the Eastern Africa region hence the depressed rainfall.

According to the climate scientists drawn from Djibouti, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan and Sudan, “most parts of GHA are predicted to have a higher likelihood for drier than average conditions as “probabilities are enhanced especially over eastern Kenya and southern Somalia.”

“Drier than normal conditions expected over coastal Sudan, equatorial and southern parts of the region with enhanced probabilities over eastern Kenya and southern parts of Somalia,” they warn.

The forecast indicates that the expected depressed rainfall will also have a delayed onset over eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and Tanzania. “Compared to the usual chances, the predicted probabilities of rainfall exceeding 200 mm and 300 mm are much lower over eastern and southern sectors of the region respectively,” they add in the presentation issued at the GHACOF62 and add, “Higher chances of exceeding these thresholds are indicated over parts of South Sudan and northern Uganda.”

Even as this is the case for most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa region, the weather experts indicate that wetter than normal conditions are expected over central to eastern South Sudan, parts of central, western and north eastern Ethiopia.

The region is also expected to be generally warmer than average as high temperatures are predicted across GHA. Probabilities of warmer than average are most enhanced over eastern Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti.