Access to basic needs and services in South Sudan: Possible Scenarios - Report

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Introduction

Problem statement

South Sudan has witnessed intermittent civil war and widespread communal and localised violence since gaining independence in 2011. 7.5 million people, 64% of the population, are in need of humanitarian assistance.

Taking into account a range of variables that affect South Sudanese access to basic needs and services, these scenarios consider developments that could have humanitarian consequences and impact on access to basic needs within South Sudan over the coming six to twelve months.

Scenarios for August 2020 – July 2021

These scenarios are not attempts to predict the future. Rather, they describe situations that could occur in the coming 6-12 months and are designed to highlight the possible impacts and humanitarian consequences associated with each scenario. The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness, and promote preparedness activities for policymakers and others working in South Sudan. The timeframe is until December 2020 although the scenarios may remain valid some months longer. See the Methodology section for more information on how these scenarios were developed.

Limitations

Scenarios can seem to oversimplify an issue as the analysis balances details against broader assumptions. Scenario-building is not an end in itself; it is a process for generating new ideas that should, in turn, lead to changes in project design or decisionmaking. These scenarios focus primarily on the potential ways in which people are able to access basic needs and services and the resultant impact and humanitarian consequences.

How to use this report

The four scenarios are summarised on page 2. Pages 5–12 provide more detail on the scenarios, including potential humanitarian consequences. Page 13 lists five factors that could compound the humanitarian consequences of any of the scenarios. A brief summary of the current situation in South Sudan, together with a description of the key actors involved is given on pages 11-14. Annexed is a summary of the trigger events that could lead towards the situations described in the scenarios.