Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan: A tale of two elections

Congolese President Joseph Kabila (centre) stands during a special joint session of parliament the day after Prime Minister Augustin Matata resigned to make way for an opposition figure in line with a controversial deal that effectively extends the president’s term in office, on November 15, 2016 in Kinshasa. PHOTO |FILE 

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and South Sudan are very rich countries in terms of natural resources. The two countries as well have never known any transfers of power from one president to another through peaceful means; tragedies in forms of war/rebellion, deaths/assassinations lead to a change of guard at the apex of power in these countries.

DRC has been at war with itself even before its political independence from Belgium in 1960, and South Sudan’s independence from Sudan exposed the fault lines in the newly independent country which has since followed in the destructive path of other African countries soon after they attained their independence.

In DRC, President Joseph Kabila has devised a new strategy of remaining in power through postponement of elections for all sorts of reasons including insecurity in some parts of that vast country like Kasai province which affected voter registration efforts and the price tag of holding elections which according to the budget minister amounts to a staggering $ 1.8 billion.

This price tag in a country as rich as the DRC should be nothing. The price tag for waging war in DRC is way far too costly than that $ 1.8 billion for elections. Funds for waging war are readily available but not funds for organizing elections which are left to those who desperately want to see elections (mostly Western powers) to foot the bill.

Despite elections being a process and not an event, the DRC under Kabila has consistently failed to hold them, and with the regional body, SADC concluding its 37th Ordinary Summit of Head of States and Governments meeting with congratulatory words on the efforts made by the Kinshasa government in implementing the St Sylvestre agreement with opposition parties of December 31, 2016, as well as noting the challenges which makes it unrealistic for the DRC to hold elections by the end of the year, it means regional allies have not abandoned the Kinshasa government.

Kabila was even quoted as saying that he never promised anything.

His mandate expired last November and as he dithers with holding elections by the end of the year, DRC is assured of more uncertainty in the future.

In South Sudan, a country whose military spending almost equals the DRC’s election price tag, insists that it will hold its elections as scheduled for mid-2018 after being postponed in 2015 because of the civil war. Local lobbyists and the UN through its Special Envoy to the African Union, Haile Menkerios, have said it is unrealistic to hold elections by that time frame amidst the civil war and have urged the warring parties to implement the peace deal which they have frequently violated.

While rulers in the DRC are using war among the reasons for calling for postponement of elections by year’s end, why are rulers in South Sudan saying elections will go on despite the madness afflicting their country?

There are two possible explanations here.

First, rulers in South Sudan do not want to follow the path of DRC’s Kabila which has led to endless external and internal pressure for him to hold elections. By insisting that they will hold elections despite making no preparations whatsoever to make it possible for elections to be held by 2018 they are skillfully maneuvering their stay in power. Like the DRC, South Sudan has a “temporary” government, a product of a peace deal.

As in the case of the DRC, it is also unlikely that there will be regional pressure for South Sudan to hold elections come 2018. The only source of external pressure will be Western powers, but with the UN saying holding elections in 2018 is unrealistic, South Sudan leaders have no reason for headaches from that end.

Second, South Sudanese political leaders genuinely want to hold these elections as planned in 2018 and President Salva Kiir has urged his political opponents to prepare for the elections. If they are held that will guarantee him much needed legitimacy and victory at the ballot box in a bitterly divided country. After all even Somalia despite being in pieces and war torn longer than South Sudan has been holding elections from time to time, which confer international recognition and legitimacy for its winners. And in this case, those footing the bill will be those who desperately see elections as synonymous with democracy in Africa.

Either way, South Sudanese rulers come out as winners unlike DRC’s Kabila whose hold onto power increasingly continue to be tenuous.