UT expert brings South Sudan solutions to Methodist Church

FUMC associate pastor the Rev. Sarah Slack explained that she sought Keels for the Conversation Matters presentation because of the special connection FUMC Maryville has with South Sudan. About four years ago, FUMC helped Methodist worshippers in Pukuka build a new, permanent church building in the small South Sudanese town.

And further, the Holston Conference of the United Methodist Church has a representative in South Sudan overseeing Methodist outposts there. The Holston Conference was also affiliated with a couple of South Sudanese orphanages, both of which had to be evacuated due to the recent conflict. “All (of the orphanages’ residents) had to flee to Uganda,” Slack said.

“It is a depressing topic,” Keels admitted to the assembled group. “But I’m hoping you’ll leave today feeling empowered that there are some options available.”

A post-doctoral fellow in global security, Keels explained that his specialty is the study of civil wars and the issues that surround them — what causes them, how to deconstruct them, strategies for negotiation and peace-keeping.

All of which makes him well-suited to address the problems in South Sudan, which has been torn by no less than three civil wars, spanning most of the years between 1955 and the present.

The first two of those wars, from 1955 to 1972, and from 1983 to 2005, eventually resulted in the splitting of the country into North and South Sudan, with South Sudan officially gaining its independence in 2011.

But Keels said that the destabilizing effects of those two earlier conflicts played a role in setting the stage for the latest one, which has been raging in South Sudan since 2013. Decades of war exposed rifts within the South’s own ethnic and political factions, and also “created systemic issues in South Sudan, including chronic underdevelopment and poor infrastructure,” Keels said.

Keels outlined the country’s tumultuous recent history, dating back to the 1950s, when the unified Sudan was struggling to free itself from colonial powers such as Great Britain. But in addition to seeking freedom from colonialism, the southernmost portion of the country — predominantly Christian or Christian sympathizing — also sought independence from the north, dominated by Arabic culture and the Islamic religion.

After years of fighting, a peace agreement in 1972 ended the first civil war, granting limited independence to South Sudan. But the guarantees of that agreement eroded over time, leading to the second civil war, beginning in 1983.

The second civil war saw the emergence of the south’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement, and its strong right arm, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army, under the leadership of politician John Garang. But the SPLM proved susceptible to internal conflict, and the splinter group South Sudan Defense Forces (SSDF) under Garang rival Riek Machar broke off from Garang’s organization, hindering the south’s quest for independence.

Keel credits the Bush administration for eventually marshaling international support and helping broker a comprehensive peace agreement between the northern and southern portions of Sundan in 2005. The accord called for the creation of an independent South Sudan, with the separation taking effect in 2011.

In the meantime, though, the South’s newfound divisions — now taking place across ethnic and political lines, rather than the religious, sectarian lines that defined the North/South conflict — grew deeper. Keels said the death of Garang in 2005 in a helicopter crash only made matters worse, as he was replaced as head of the SPLM by Salva Kiir, a military veteran with a more bellicose disposition.

When Kiir accused Machar of planning an effort to ovethrow him in 2013, the resulting violence quickly raged out of control, leading to the third and most recent civil war. “It began as a battle between two men in power,” Keels said. “But it quickly spiraled down into an ethnic conflict.”

At the local level, Keels said South Sudan is riddled with a number of complicated ethnic and tribal divisions, the common denominator in all of it being that, “None of these groups trust any of the others.”

The fallout from the latest fighting has been devastating. Since the most recent war began, Keels said 1.6 million refugees have fled South Sudan, most of them taking shelter in nearby Uganda. More than 60 percent of the refugees are children.

Keels said at least 50,000 have died in the conflict, although that figure may be an underestimate, given difficulties in obtaining information on casualties in the last year or so. And South Sudan’s resources and infrastructure, already badly damaged by years of continuous fighting, have taken even more of a hit in the recent hostilities.

Keels said both sides have been guilty of wreaking havoc on civilian populations, perpetrating atrocities that have included torture, rape, looting and the recruitment of child soldiers. Nonprofit organizations attempting to bring in humanitarian aide have also been targeted by the armies, further increasing the harm to noncombatants.

Keels said there is hope for ending the war, but that the United States must take a key role. “That 2005 agreement (ending the second civil war) signaled that the U.S. has some leverage in the situation,” he said.

In taking a lead role in peace-making efforts, Keels said the U.S. needs to pressure other international players — including Kiir allies in Uganda — into dragging the warring factions to the negotiation table.

Keels also stressed the importance of bringing United Nations and African Union peacekeeping forces to bear to help protect civilians. “This has been really effective in some other conflicts around the world,” he said. “In places where the peace keepers are not there, that’s where we see more civilian casualties.”

But what can be done at the local level, in Maryville, some 7,500 miles from the killing fields of South Sudan? Keels enthusiastically touted a very simple solution: calling Tennessee’s highest ranking legislator regarding foreign affairs.

“You should call Bob Corker — he has a very important seat,” Keels said of the state’s junior U.S. senator, who is chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as well as the ex-officio chairman of the Subcommittee on African Affairs.

“It’s a funny thing about calling your congressman — a lot of times, they will actually listen to their constituents,” Keels said. “And Bob Corker has a key committee chair. You need to tell him that aid helps, but what we really need in South Sudan is international pressure to bring the fighting to a close.

“You all can bring the peace process a little bit closer just by calling attention to South Sudan.”