Russia's war in Ukraine a 'diplomatic conundrum' for some African nations

Visiting New York in 1990, then-South African president Nelson Mandela was asked why he worked with figures that the US considered adversaries - Fidel Castro of Cuba, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, and Muammar Gaddafi of Libya.

"One of the mistakes which some political analysts make is to think their enemies should be our enemies," he said. "Our attitude towards any country is determined by the attitude of that country to our struggle."

More than three decades on, South Africa^[1]'s current leader, Cyril Ramaphosa, is under fire over the country's neutral position on Russia's invasion of Ukraine^[2]. South Africa abstained from voting during a UN General Assembly resolution to condemn Russia's actions and has been accused of "flip-flopping" on its stance.

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Ramaphosa said South Africa wanted to be a mediator and that by staying neutral the country was in a better position to help mediate an end to the war.

"Our position is very clear. There are those who are insisting we should take a very adversarial stance and position against Russia. The approach we have decided to take, which is appreciated by many, is that we insist there should be dialogue," Ramaphosa said in response to questions in parliament last month.

South Africa is a close Russian ally dating back more than three decades to the Cold War, when the Soviet Union helped train and equip anti-apartheid freedom fighters. South Africa is also a member of the BRICS grouping^[4] of five major emerging economies, along with Brazil, Russia, India and China.

According to Aanu Adeoye, Mo Ibrahim Foundation Academy fellow with the Russia-Eurasia programme at the Chatham House think tank, "by abstaining, South Africa ignores the power imbalance between the warring parties and Russia's clear aggression in its invasion of Ukraine".

"And its blanket call for dialogue can be interpreted as a tacit endorsement of Russia's actions," he wrote in an article on the think tank's website.

Adeoye said South Africa and other members of the BRICS alliance see themselves as rising powers providing an alternative to the traditional dominant powers, noting that of the five, only Brazil had voted in favour of the UN resolution.

"South Africa also has positive memories of warm relations forged during the Soviet era [during] its own fight against apartheid."

But it is not just South Africa - dozens of African countries^[5] have been hesitant to make their stand known on Russia's aggression in Ukraine.

Zaynab Mohamed, a political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, said "the conflict places some African states in a diplomatic conundrum, as they enjoy close ties with both Russia and the West".

Most nations that voted in favour of the UN resolution to condemn Russia on March 2 are Western-allied democracies, and the exceptions from Africa appear to be prioritising their national interest over ideology, Mohamed said.

David Shinn, a professor at George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs, said half of the governments in Africa did vote in the UN General Assembly on two occasions to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The other half remained neutral and Eritrea alone supported Russia.

"Most of those governments that did not condemn Russia are themselves authoritarian regimes, although there are important exceptions such as South Africa," Shinn said.

Some of the governments fear angering Moscow, while others are highly dependent on Russia for arms - though Egypt is in that group and voted on both occasions to condemn Russia's actions, he said.

"A few governments probably remained neutral just to spite traditional Western partners. Nevertheless, I see the African voting results as a glass half full for Ukraine because half of the continent voted to oppose Russian aggression and support state sovereignty," Shinn said.

Mohammed Soliman, a scholar at the Middle East Institute, said from their perspective, "African leaders see the Ukraine war as part of a new normal of global disorder, where no great power can fully impose its will on the other great power".

Some of the nations unwilling to condemn Russia have leaders that "lack legitimacy domestically", said Joseph Siegle, research director for the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies at the National Defence University in Washington.

"They depend on Moscow's political and mercenary support to hold onto power," Siegle wrote in The Conversation, pointing to the leaders of the Central African Republic, Sudan and Mali.

He said a second category was those with leaders who have patronage ties with Russia. Those in power in Algeria, Angola, Burundi, Guinea, Equatorial Guinea, Madagascar, Mozambique, South Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe benefit from Russian arms, disinformation, or political cover, Siegle said.

He said those that voted to condemn the invasion included leading African democracies and democratisers - Botswana, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Malawi, Mauritius, Niger, Nigeria, Kenya, Seychelles, Sierra Leone and Zambia.

Russia has made inroads into countries such as Mali, Guinea, Angola and Sudan. For instance, following coups in Mali, the country has become isolated from the West, with France and its allies to withdraw their troops. Russia backed the country when it vetoed a UN Security Council resolution seeking to support Ecowas sanctions on Mali.

Russia has usually voted with China to block decisions at the UN Security Council that touch on a number of African countries. This was the case for Zimbabwe when the US and other Western nations wanted the UN to impose sanctions, and recently on Ethiopia over the Tigray war.

Most African countries import wheat and fertiliser from Russia and Ukraine.

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP)^[6], the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app^[7] or visit the SCMP's Facebook^[8] and Twitter^[9] pages.

References

1. ^{^} South Africa (www.scmp.com)
2. ^{^} Russia's invasion of Ukraine (www.scmp.com)
3. ^{^} SCMP Knowledge (www.scmp.com)
4. ^{^} BRICS grouping (www.scmp.com)
5. ^{^} African countries (www.scmp.com)
6. ^{^} South China Morning Post (SCMP) (www.scmp.com)
7. ^{^} SCMP app (go.onelink.me)
8. ^{^} Facebook (www.facebook.com)
9. ^{^} Twitter (twitter.com)