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If Sudan Want Peace it has to Prepare for War

* By James Okuk

It has been said in the ancient times in the Roman Empire that if a nation want peace itarmy has to prepare itself for war. But this does not necessary means it has to start or get into war situation and its destructive consequences because ?there is no peace in war,' and because "war has no home." The purpose for that violent preparation is mainly deterrence to the enemy so that it does not risk attacking you in any shortest time possible.

This logic has been adopted by the League of Nations and it went out of hand when the World War II broke out. Nonetheless it was re-adopted by the United Nation Security Council in its decision of establishing the International Peace-keeping Force. That force is supposed to be well trained and well equipped with sophisticated lethal military facilities and strong mandate of not starting any war or attacking the enemies of peace except in the rare cases of protection of the civilian, ethnic minorities, or war prisoners from genocidal acts. The same logic had also been employed by the greatest world military powers like the United States of America (USA) and Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in the period of their cold war when they threatened themselves with heavy destructive weapons and told each other that "if they want to live they should think to die massively." The same attitude has become very common today even in the less developed world. Some of the less developed countries now days have chosen to waste most of their resources and money in inventing nuclear weapons of mass destruction with a justification that they want to protect their sovereignty from possible external threats and intrusions. But the case of the Sudan now is some how unique though the Sudanese are resorting to use the same logic of ?prepare for war if you want peace' and ?prepare to die if you want to live', given the risky crisis haunting the Naivasha's partners.




Since the time when the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) was signed in Nairobi in the beginning of 2005, Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) has been equipping and preparing itself heavily more than the time of their war with the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) in Southern Sudan. Right after the CPA era the government of the Sudan had neglected a bit the ?Holy Warriors' (Mujahidin) known as the Popular Defence Force (Dafaa El Shabi) because they seemed not to be needed in peace time any more. Nonetheless, and at the tensioned heights of the current partnership crisis between the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement (SPLM) and the National Congress Party (NCP), the President of the Republic of the Sudan, H.E. Mr. AL-Bashir went public and told all Dafaa El Shabi warriors to report back to their previous centres in preparation for defence of Islam and sovereignty of the Sudan. Notwithstanding, he assured them that his call was not for waging war against Southern Sudan but rather for the protection of the CPA within the internal mechanism of its implementation.




The above move from the chief of the NCP suggests that those ?Mujahidin' are being re-activated and re-prepared to face the enemies of Mr. Al-Bashir from outside the Sudan and to protect the current borders of the North against any claim by the South. The public statement issued by Dafa El Shabi of the White Nile State some weeks ago (when food and other commercial supplies from the North were detained by SAF from getting into Southern Sudan) corresponds with the President call, because those ?Mujahidin' have bowed to wage war against the SPLA and the Southerners if they tempered with the current (un-demarcated) borders of the White Nile State of Northern Sudan with Upper Nile State of Southern Sudan. But I wonder if the same Mujahidin will act according to the same morale they had prior to the time of departure of ideologue El-Turabi with Mr. President Al-Bashir, which was caused by the 1998 constitution that was known vaguely as ?gawanin el twali' - or progressive laws. Right now, Sheikh El-Turabi looks at what those Dafaa El Shabi had done in the South as wrong and irrelevant to the meaning of the Holy War in the Holy Qoran. He regards the Mujahidin who got killed in the South as ?wastes' and never martyrs of Islam. Therefore, I doubt whether, Mr. President Call for re-activation of Dafaa El Shabi will be the same as his Call of long ago when the Muslims of the Sudan were talking in one language. Those Mujahidin might turn up for political and financial purpose but I doubt whether they will act the same way they use to, because up to now most of them had learnt a lot from the past and will not risk to be blinded to get into dirty business of regrettable war again. Of course if the Arab Northerners chose to recruit as many warriors as they can afford in Northern Sudan it will be up to them because it is their Sharia (Islamic Laws) territory, which has been accepted in the CPA. The problem will come only if they attempt to extend the activities of that Dafaa El Shabi to the Southern Sudan. The CPA and Interim National Constitution and Interim Constitution of Southern Sudan do not allow any other armed force in the territory of Southern Sudan apart from the Joint Integrated Units (JIUs), the SPLA, the Police Forces, the National Security Forces and UN Peace-keeping Forces.




Right, if this is the current scenario of the NCP and its Chief Mr. Al-Bashir, what is the scenario of the SPLM and its Chief Mr. Salva Kiir in regard to the on-going crisis and risk? So far it seems that the SPLM is not totally prepared for war in spite of the execution of Plan ?A' of the withdrawing of its cadres from the top executive constitutional positions. That Plan ?A' has proved to be valueless and ?effectiveless' for the SPLM political strength beyond the media campaigns and noises. It has not threaten any possibility of the regime change of the NCP controlled Khartoum. Instead it has led many Arab Northerners to rally behind Al-Bashir administration and build strong confidence in him for protecting Arabs interest in the Sudan. Now Mr. Salva Kiir is talking of Plan ?B', which strongly points to war of Juba with Khartoum and, perhaps, after the possible Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI) for South Sudan. Because if SPLM finds it impossible to see the fulfilment of its conditions for resuming the activities of its Ministers and Presidential Advisors at the Government of National Unity (GoNU) level, it might resort to total withdrawal from Khartoum.




Will the CPA survive with that assumed Plan ?B'? Where will the SPLM be by then if they take that option? If they refused to be part of the GoNU will they also have the guts to continue to be part of Mr. Al-Bashir administration at the level of Southern Sudan? Will the SPLM afford to go home and be an opposition to the current NCP-controlled government, leaving its continuation to the other political parties who are participating in the CPA government both in the North and South? Will the SPLM allow the Government of Sothern Sudan (GoSS) to continue to be given from Khartoum the 50% share of the oil revenue and the other government budget that goes from the North to the South if they pull out from Khartoum? What will be the plight of the Nuba Mountains, Abyei Area and the Angassina Area (i.e., the former Liberated Areas) if the SPLM took the South to the option of UDI and the consequences of the reaction by Khartoum?




I am sure that (even with the moves and preparations of the SAF and its allies at present) the Arab Northerners are not going to defeat Southerners if war broke out. The feeling of hatred for the Jallaba (Arab Northerners) has already taken roots within the Southerners and it is going to be suicide and genocide for both sides this time if they took the war option. The South will lose the North and the North will lose the South in this beautiful and potentially rich Sudan. So many people will run away to the neighbouring countries for refuge and those who will suffer the humiliation most shall be the poor ones (both from the North and the South). Uganda might not welcome the South Sudan refugees in a friendly manner as they use to in the past, because right now they are bitter about the continuous killing of their people in Juba and other parts of Southern Sudan. Some of them might take revenge or avenge on the Southern Sudanese. Ethiopia has a lot of problems and it will not accept refugees from Southern Sudan to add into its crises. Kenya does not receive whoever does not carry direct financial gains; it will only receive some few rich Southern Sudanese and no more than that. Democratic Republic of Congo is totally insecure and even worst than Southern Sudan. Egypt shall not afford to host those who do not have more than two thousands US dollars in their accounts, and therefore, it shall only receive those who are rich and reject those who are poor. Libya is unreliable and never a hospitable country for refugees and immigrants. Leave alone Eritrea, Chad and Central Africa Republic, which are far behind the Sudan in terms of peace, development and help. The overseas continents like Australia, America and Europe are already fatigued with the problems and burdens of the Sudanese and shall not be willing to welcome then in their countries. Asia continent has no records of receiving and hosting refugees.




What then if the Sudanese got into that worse kind of war? So bad and God's mercy in receiving so many Sudanese souls for either hell or heaven! I wish and hope the radical elements within both the SPLM and NCP will listen to the conscience of peace within them and spare the Sudan from war, disintegration and destruction. The poor Sudanese have had enough of suffering and should not be burdened with more deaths and trauma. Many Sudanese want to live even if they are poor. Mr. Salva Kiir and Mr. Omer Al-Bashir should not take away from them the value of peace. Their mistrust of each other in the hope of leading the CPA to its harmonious democratic logical end should not become a curse to the naturally blessed Sudan. God help us!




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* The author is a Sudanese and a PhD student in the University of Nairobi in the field of Political Philosophy. He can be reached at: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.




Comments (8)
  • Tipo Mel

    Hi Mr/ Okuk,
    I am grateful that you have considered and appreciated the advices of some brothers to continue to do the writing via Pachodo website. Criticism is not a matter as long as one has conviction in whatever he writes, because at the end of day one will be accountable for what he has done or written. As for your article I can say that a crisis does not make a man; it reveals him. Therefore, it is not a surprise that the president call for reactivation of the popular defence forces, because that is what the NCP has been doing as a policy for 18 years. the policy of reneging on any agreement.and it was clear from Mustafa Osman's respond as a result of the SPLM's suspension policy, when he said that; '' we don't care if their (SPLM) ministers are in the North or the South; we will not stop what we are doing and will not respond to pressure''. this mean that either SPLM suspended its participation in the GONU or remain in partnership with the NCP, they will not stop the policy of reneging the agreement that will let someday to war.

    however, the problem is not what the president has called for, or what the SPLM has decided, but how we as southerners respond to the current political crisis. I personally have observed that we lost hope instead of having the right attitude toward the current crisis. We begin to see the Northerners as gaints that strick fear into our hearts for our future. whereas " many Arab Northerners rally behind Al-Bashir adminstration and build strong confidence in him for the protecting Arabs interest in the Sudan' as you put it.
    In fact our morale has become low. Twenty-two years of hardship, suffering and wandering from place to an other place as displaced people and refugees had discouraged us greatly. the worse of all Dr/ John Garang was no longer around to lead the people into the promised land. We had every reason to be discouraged and our problems seem overwhelming. Despite of these still we have hope in Garang's successor Silva Kiir who will lead the people of South Sudan into a new land. and because he had assisted Dr/ Garang for many years, he was well prepared to takeover the leadership of the SPLM. without out support it can be frightening. what we need in this critical time is to support him to be strong and courageous because the task ahead of southerners' destiny would not be easy.

  • Kimo Ajing Aba

    Dear Bro. Tipo Mel,
    Thanks indeed for your comment to our bro. Okuk. I opted to put some comments but you have done your best, which should have be a Collo stand. War has never been an option for our Collo country man and woman. Today the whole of South Sudan is facing the same situation, once more. Should we go out and look for justifications, or should we stand with what is right?. President Omer El Bashir has now rallied NCP's Millitia (not the Army) against what will turn out to be infidels, weather it be the South, the SPLM, or the Collo. The question is: Where do we stand here as Collo?. When a president of the country rallies a group of citizens against another citizens of the same nation, can such a person fit to be president for all?. I thank you very much Mr. Tipo Mel for saying that we should rally behind our president, Salva Kiir, and not Omer a Bashir, as long as he divides the Sudanese. The war of Al-Mahadiya (Al-Lamthar) against our innocent Villagers in the late 1880s should always be vivid in our minds and skulls. Now we are watching for the Dinka Abeyi fighting for the annexation of their land to the South meanwhile we are not talking about Collo lands which have become part of the White Nile State. My message is clear: If we do not stand with the South today, with all its people and tribes, tomorrow nobody will help us, as Collo.

    Kimo Ajing Aba

  • James Okuk

    Yes, I totally agree that we have to rally behind our leader Salva Kiir but the problem is there is not trust among ourselves as southerners, even as collo. How will we effectively rally behind a leader when we are divided and hate each other? However, we have to tell our leader to be patient so that the CPA does not slip out from our hands because that is the only document that gives us strength right now. The value of the CPA is in self-determination in 2011 and other articles are only a means to that end. We should not accept to lose the end when we are faced with problems of means; some means could be compromised for the end. I will only and I will advice collo to only rally behind Salva Kiir or any other leader within SPLM if they do not throw away the possibility of Southerners reaching the end of unity of South with the North in 2011. Anything which obstract that path is destructive to the awaited dream of Southern Sudanese for peaceful independece. Meanwhile we have to prepare and equip ourselves gradually for achieveing that dream whether by democracy or by war but after 2011. By then I will be ready to make a victory or die for the South against the Jallaba and I hope collo will do the same. It is only by 2011 that we will get unwavering regional and international support for our right to independece by any means. Anything in the middle will not be totally justified and might cause us to lose alot before we are back to normacy. This is my stand and I hope collo will accept it.

  • Tipo Mel

    thank you once more, I think what you stand as awaited dream that will be determine in 2011 is a consensual one for all sourtherners except opportunists. however, we afraid that the enemy will abrogate the CPA before the time if we will not united for our common interest. as you mentioned that '' there is no trust among ourselves as southerners''. this is a real threat for our unity. therefore, we need to understand that trust between individuals thus becomes trust between strangers and trust of a broad fabric of social institutions; definitely, it becomes a shared set of values and expectations within society as a whole. Without this interaction, on the other hand, trust decays; at a certain point, and it begin to manifest itself in serious social and political problems as it happening in our community these days.so we need to establish trust relationship by which people receive recognition and come together to pursue the interests they hold in common. in this way Jallaba will fear us.

  • Belshou

    Hi Okuk,

    What will be your position if Jallaba's SAF and Almujahideen decide to reoccupy the South before 2011 ?

  • James Okuk

    The Jallaba are not going to commit that mistake because it will be very costly for them. They know it well that Junubin will automatically unite to defend their land and will get greater support regionally and globally if the SAF and Mujahidden attempted to occupy the South unconstitutionally. Right now the the NCP focus is how to controll the north because they have already lost hope for regaining the confidence of Southerners for unity. President Al-Bashir has said it with his very mouth that he knows the south is going. Therefore, I do not have a position in what is not going to happen. I will only build my position in what is going to happen: that is, the independence of South Sudan in 2011 by peaceful democracy or by voilence Unilateral Declaration of Independence if the Jallaba attempted to temper with Self-determination. Let us be patient while building our strenght and trust among ourselves to ensure our long-awaited dream. Let us get into the midst of Jallaba, partner with them in the implementation of the CPA, and tame them to let us go free and remain as good neighburs in 2001. After all we are intelligent like them and we can also use them for our interests. Let us not fear them or portray ourselves as if we are weak and the one to be deceived every time.

  • Pagan

    What a beautiful discussion! On the issue of trust and unity, let me add my opinion by asking: How many of us believe that whatever is written in the constitution or in the CPA will be respected? Can anyone indicate or remember among the five or the six constitutions we had within the course of the history of Sudan from 1956-2005: only one of the core values fthat ulfill his aspiration as a citizen in Sudan? To be sincere, on my part the constitutions served the interests of the institutions of the ruling class. Thus, a constitutional article is sought only, when the interest of the ruling class is at stake.
    Secondly, both South or North, the "forma mentis" has been that ONE man can suspend the CONSTITUTION. In other words, one man can CANCEL the fundamental law that engraves the identity, the cultural values and the dignity of the people. My real problem is TRUST: for it depends on crediblity, and credibility depends on day to day activities, and day to day activities depends on scrupolous diligent individuals with moral and legal conscience, who respect themselves and their nation by implementing laws as laid down. So far, I can only say mere formalities but whether what we see now amounts to constitutional guarantee, time will tell. But history continues to haunt us insistently, unfortunately, it dies only wit us.
    Someone may say but what a pessimistic picture. He is right, for pessimism is a great part of our history and our personality. At this moment we are at the crossroads and both roads are attractive but the question is how to arrive there? Who will decide? Who will pay the consequences of any decision for one road? I think I am not alone in this dilemma.

  • Belshou

    I would say the right position to every freedom lovers is to strengthen our unity now and leave our difference aside and focus on our common enemy, not to confuse our seflves with their slogan propoganda of which some of our writers are keen enough to serve the interest of the enemy , to the extent that the number one front line enemy of the South ( Al intibaha daily arab news paper is publishing their articles ) and that news paper is doing that because these brothers are doing a great job on their behave. That is we destroy our selves and they will finish the rest .
    And it is true we are on the cross roads at this critical time of our history ,therefore we should be very vegulent and ready at any time wheither NCPis keen to honour the agreement to 2011 ,because we have learn from the histrory alot about behviours of the Northerners and their dishonsety .
    Untill we capture our full independence ,we should not take what Bashir say for granted that the South may go ,always your enemy may tell you the truth to acheive his unjustified purpose.

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