In Brief: New report on future scenarios in Sudan

NAIROBI, (IRIN) - Sudan is planning to hold elections in April 2010 and a referendum on southern autonomy the following year, but beyond this the future is uncertain, says a report entitled "Sudan 2012 - Scenarios for the Future".

The report is based on a study by Jaïr van der Lijn of the Netherland Institute of International Relations and commissioned by IKV Pax Christi and Cordaid.

Two key uncertainties will define possible scenarios in 2012 - will Sudan be united or will the North and South have gone separate ways? Or will there be a new war between the North and the South, or will there be no war?

"At present, the international community, governments, international organizations and civil society groups are primarily focused on stimulating implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and making sure an election and referendum take place...little time is given to thinking strategically about the period after 2011. What will happen in 2012 is barely touched on," the report says.