Articles
Advice to SPLM/A: Accept Postponement of Referendum But With Conditions
- Details
- Created on Tuesday, 17 August 2010 06:41
- Written by Dr. James Okuk
For the separatist the postponement of the referendum is an evil because it will lead to the delay of the democratic declaration of South Sudan Independence, and for the unionists too the conduct of the referendum when some crucial issues remain unattended is a greatest evil because it will lead to undesirable break up of the unified Sudan.
Thus, the two options pose some bad news, depending on the side of the angle one looks at each of them.
However, postponing the referendum is part of the CPA deal but declaring the independence of South Sudan unilaterally (UDI) is not and, thus, a violation of the CPA; meaning invitation of war if both the divorcing partners are prepared for it. Is the SPLM/A prepared for a victorious war? Is the NCP/SAF prepared for a war of invasion too? For how long will that war go on before another peace deal is reached? These are the critical questions a wise and a strategic person or a group could ask at this critical stage, and I believe it is the very questions the SPLM PB are delivering on now before coming up with a final decision on the matter of the postponement of the referendum.
Arrogance and hard-lining is not the best option most of the time. After all it is better late with slowness of assurance than never with rush of uncertainty. Also we have to acknowledge what the Christian Jesus said that if your enemy demands that you carry him for one mile, take him for two miles instead and he or she will hate it more as it become boring.
If I were the SPLM PB, I will accept the request of the Referendum Commission to postpone the issue for one year instead of the six months demanded so that next time they don't get any chance to play the tricks of timing and procedures. Meanwhile in the year, I will demand from the NCP and Khartoum to carry on some developmental projects in the South since those of the USAID and World Bank failed to do any thing great development in the South so far and so good.
Meanwhile as the postponement thrives, I will also try to rally the world support at the UN and and lobby for a quick decision from the International Arbitration Court of Justice, incase the South opt for a UDI after having tolerated the postponements of the referendum and tricks of the NCP and Khartoum on the issue. Not only this, but also I would have unified all the Southerners under the cover of reconciliation from the South-South dialogue for any eventuality in the aftermath of 9th January 2012.
This is my take in brief and I hope it gets a hearing hear in the SPLM PB. In truth and sincere wisdom we should trust!!!!
Dr James Okuk is a concerned Southerner reachable at
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17-08-2010 14:32:38 |Unregistered| Dr emmanuel benjamin
why postponement of referendam dear okuk to do what people of south sudan waiting for it more than fifty year either referendam conduct as stipulated in CPA on 9 of january 2011 or war between NORTH and SOUTH no development can be done in remaining perod as you imaging
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17-08-2010 14:43:47 |Unregistered| Dr James Okuk
With due respect to the South Sudan separatists' hard-liners, let me acknowledge that they have a genuine fear because anything that could affect the realization of the independence of South Sudan, even by short cut, is a greater evil that should never be tolerated by any chance. The same applies to the unionists' hard-liners too who think that separation of South Sudan from the larger unified Sudan is the greatest evil that should never be tolerated. Surely both of those extremes positions are recipe for war if common ground is created. But who is in the best position to come out victorious from the war? Unionists or separatists? From my reading there is none of either.
If you read article 2.6 of the the CPA together with article 3.1.5, you can see that both partners have been allowed to extend the validity of the CPA but not violating it. These articles have been applied several times in the past: from the delay of the formation of the CPA government, to the delay of re-deplo...
على راى المتواضع تاجيل الاستفتاء امر غير مقبول ، حتى لو ادى الى رجوع لخنادق، لان الحزب المؤتمر الوطنى وصل لقناعة ، اما تزوير الارادة الجنوبية او اختيار الحرب. اما جنوب تنفصل مقابل النفط وجزء كبير من الاراضى الجنوبية ، اعلان دولة جنوب من طرف واحد مقابل الحرب ، تزوير الاستفتاء وشراء ذمم او اختيار الحرب ، تعليق الاستفتاء او الحرب ، فى كل حالات الحرب موجود، حتى اذا تم تاجيل الاستفتاء لعدة سنوات ولم يتغير خيار جنوبيون الى الوحدة حرب موجود او الحزب الحاكم يستسلم لامر الواقعة ويكون انفصال سلس وسلمى ، وهذا افضل خيار لانه مفتاح التعامل بين دولتيين مستقبلا وقد يودى الى الوحدة مرة الثانية مستقبلا